Sunday, October 13, 2013

Banking - Only way is up.

Banking in India is fairly mature in terms of supply, product range and reach-even though reach in rural India still remains a challenge for the private sector and foreign banks... I think from a long term perspective the only way is 'UP'....

From a global perspective - Indian banks are very limited in size (example: SBI - India's largest bank in all respects doesn't figure in top 50 banks worldwide. I think it is no. 89 or so on the list). Nevertheless - I reckon RBI is taking more measures to speed up banking growth. New banking licenses coming in by end of 2013 is one such indicators...

Banking (and Insurance - which is nascent in India and somewhat related) would be long term growth story. Last private sector banks to be given licenses were - Yes Bank, Kotak Mahindra.. nearly 9 years back. Before that sometime in 1990's - ICICI / HDFC (one knows the meteoric rise of these banks).

From a growth perspective, my picks -

Yes Bank - One of the fastest growing banks in India. Have been accumulating ever since 2008 when it reached sub 50 levels... some nice buying opportunity now when its hovering sub 300 levels now..

South Indian Bank - One of the oldest private banks in India. Steady presence in south.. patronized by NRI's. Nice one to pick sub 20's.

DCB - Its sort of rising again as a phoenix... dark horse worth holding. Once the debt goes (hopefully next year) - I like this one.

What could be interesting bets - some of the applicants for new banking licenses - LIC Housing Finance, L and T Finance Holdings, AB Nuvo, others... I'm kinda looking at averaging the top 6 - 7 players who most probably will get a license. Seems like the safest strategy for me!

Ciao till next time...Harsha

Sunday, October 06, 2013

Auto ancillaries - Lumax Auto Tech

Auto Ancillaries is a long term growth story in India.

I have been pretty bullish on Auto Ancillaries as a long term India story. There are many good picks currently and one of the interesting ones I feel is Lumax Auto Tech.

Recent panic has seen many of the Auto ancillaries trade all time lows. This led me to research recently about all my picks in this sector. Best of the lot I think is this little known company.

Have been following this for a few years since its IPO. Pretty strong promoter presence, nice dividend yield (trading in 90 - 93 range, dividend yield of ~6.2%), strong growth prospects since they have a strong presence in Auto lighting segment (Near monopoly at Bajaj) and others like two wheeler chassis, Adjustor Motors, Exhaust systems & Mufflers, Fork & Handle Bar Assemblies, Petrol tanks, etc to two and three wheelers.

didn't have enough money in 2008 when I thought this could be a nice bet - just had another buying opportunity. Seems like a nice investment for next 5 - 10 years.

Ciao till next time...Harsha