tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-132722602024-03-07T08:39:46.752+01:00Ataraxia"Ataraxia" is an ideal state to achieve. As the Greek philosopher Epicurus would state - Its the ultimate ability to find peace in chaos - reach a perfect and lucid state of tranquility.Harshahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07448174492659018046noreply@blogger.comBlogger164125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13272260.post-90473284865592499752023-12-01T08:33:00.009+01:002023-12-01T08:36:30.616+01:00Charlie Munger - A life, well lived<div>It is sad seeing one of your heroes pass away. One usually wishes that they sort of live on forever. If you have not heard of Charlie Munger, I suggest you stop reading and spend time reading about him. It will be time well spent.</div><div><br /></div><div>A wonderful summary - <a href="https://fs.blog/intellectual-giants/charlie-munger/" target="_blank">Who is Charlie Munger?</a></div><div><br /></div><div>Don't forget to listen to this long meandering speech when you get the time. It is a wonderful compilation of mental models in a speech Charlie gave in 1995 at Harvard.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Jv7sLrON7QY" width="320" youtube-src-id="Jv7sLrON7QY"></iframe></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Charlie just passed away a few weeks shy of 100th birthday. Well.. what a life, a life truly well lived. Reading about him, my son was asking me yesterday why he was only worth $2.6B while his partner at Berkshire, Buffett is worth many times more, $100B+? </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Well, it seems to me that he has given away a large chunk of his wealth over the years. From the days when he held over 2% of Berkshire Hathaway (which will make him slightly shy of $15B), he seems to have over time sold his shares to fund various philanthropic activities. Who cares if it is $1B, $10B or $100B....at the end of the day, it is what legacy you leave behind that matters. </div><br /><div>Since I do not have a whole lot of time, I have compiled a list of his writings from various books. Let him speak for himself here -</div><div><br /></div><div><b><i>Charlie on Family, Finances and Savings</i></b></div><div><br /></div><div>He wanted a large family. He eventually had 8 children.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyiLESsLv1I6g5w7-7aYoFy1a5ccykvH2StTdPiEf-rGJB0NWHR_x2PVDZEu0AzpOMaHmjtkf21pbqIj0leTsP5aHlpyeESlDFgnCn4L9jfJ13Kja9F4Cm9oBe4jGFmra_asgdrV8eGhrDpLFzipXrMzK1CCXd-UAn8-uMvuCoS5kXh2AXrBLB/s1548/1-kids-freedom.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><br /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyiLESsLv1I6g5w7-7aYoFy1a5ccykvH2StTdPiEf-rGJB0NWHR_x2PVDZEu0AzpOMaHmjtkf21pbqIj0leTsP5aHlpyeESlDFgnCn4L9jfJ13Kja9F4Cm9oBe4jGFmra_asgdrV8eGhrDpLFzipXrMzK1CCXd-UAn8-uMvuCoS5kXh2AXrBLB/s1548/1-kids-freedom.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="176" data-original-width="1548" height="45" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyiLESsLv1I6g5w7-7aYoFy1a5ccykvH2StTdPiEf-rGJB0NWHR_x2PVDZEu0AzpOMaHmjtkf21pbqIj0leTsP5aHlpyeESlDFgnCn4L9jfJ13Kja9F4Cm9oBe4jGFmra_asgdrV8eGhrDpLFzipXrMzK1CCXd-UAn8-uMvuCoS5kXh2AXrBLB/w400-h45/1-kids-freedom.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>Losing his first son. A nasty divorce. Picking the straws after he was 30. Never self-pitying. Play with the hand you are dealt, as best as you can.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjt8jHugRv3Zqp8sF1wAe5Qhpa0bjnjAmzCK6f3JJPcWnWHyqiL27YA0DdAsmUhmruMqcZb9e_JHNGkU6WxswHcUry4YT6i5Ko5XmfCDXTa5f68wCv8u4eqLDf3BVMVmmjEb_ii9rqXNOhWxZNRp42hOZ58pyFUOPAh10Uid5jNFTUx-o_vSNKD/s1920/2-Losing-a-kid.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1070" data-original-width="1920" height="223" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjt8jHugRv3Zqp8sF1wAe5Qhpa0bjnjAmzCK6f3JJPcWnWHyqiL27YA0DdAsmUhmruMqcZb9e_JHNGkU6WxswHcUry4YT6i5Ko5XmfCDXTa5f68wCv8u4eqLDf3BVMVmmjEb_ii9rqXNOhWxZNRp42hOZ58pyFUOPAh10Uid5jNFTUx-o_vSNKD/w400-h223/2-Losing-a-kid.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>Playing a game that fits your talents, he says.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmC5f33CybS9oKkwv_MZULciIcsLKSaj-BwUfjHZr6A9OO3upKYGGCPRX7avnGrhGPn9O6zC59nutTr_3I9jl2Vt_83T2bvPjem0gEK2q0Mz1EwHcMgLXOkhQM0gX6mpzYX6gn72iKCP3TF_UpHz4G4ike1TnPuEI38J5NijsxvnacAFP5zFVZ/s1740/3-Investing-saving.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="548" data-original-width="1740" height="126" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmC5f33CybS9oKkwv_MZULciIcsLKSaj-BwUfjHZr6A9OO3upKYGGCPRX7avnGrhGPn9O6zC59nutTr_3I9jl2Vt_83T2bvPjem0gEK2q0Mz1EwHcMgLXOkhQM0gX6mpzYX6gn72iKCP3TF_UpHz4G4ike1TnPuEI38J5NijsxvnacAFP5zFVZ/w400-h126/3-Investing-saving.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><b><i>First break in real estate. Interestingly, he constantly avoided that for much of his later life. Having great partners.</i></b></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDpv95brEXCpwDTDH2aXFcdrcjqoXsAInxto4gAgmlRG0_73mU99MaiDviRgrqC9kerDIcxrmPTvFgn_o9ah7DZ9gEIZ1SVTzYYM0c4ayXVBbHbcLZs-hQ26ZoE3QybxPL7sOVCxUuhEDjka87hta2s9WMp7xaYInjIh8JBXeaiKfxe_18_fiC/s1992/1-Real-estate-break.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="660" data-original-width="1992" height="133" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDpv95brEXCpwDTDH2aXFcdrcjqoXsAInxto4gAgmlRG0_73mU99MaiDviRgrqC9kerDIcxrmPTvFgn_o9ah7DZ9gEIZ1SVTzYYM0c4ayXVBbHbcLZs-hQ26ZoE3QybxPL7sOVCxUuhEDjka87hta2s9WMp7xaYInjIh8JBXeaiKfxe_18_fiC/w400-h133/1-Real-estate-break.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>Some old takes on Buffett. Munger. Guerin (third partner who over-leveraged and was not in the league of Buffett and Munger post 1980's).. Take on their earlier partnerships. Why only partner with great people.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjU_G57lyHZcOIolIcOUT7BJulqp2R-cTmEG4xScEuCDYdQfoDlQr2DNNaroeJoVKCEBr1NoMvDO2uOGoha-CKtAYO8BmrJrGJ-TLinCMU7wxCdIz-FcahZ2yyyXRjs4Swa7VMG_Ekwn6BzO38L5hjx3HRkVc2gksEiAX0CHb8IMyTr5VO9QMKb/s1792/1-Initial-ventures-Buffett-Guerin.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="963" data-original-width="1792" height="215" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjU_G57lyHZcOIolIcOUT7BJulqp2R-cTmEG4xScEuCDYdQfoDlQr2DNNaroeJoVKCEBr1NoMvDO2uOGoha-CKtAYO8BmrJrGJ-TLinCMU7wxCdIz-FcahZ2yyyXRjs4Swa7VMG_Ekwn6BzO38L5hjx3HRkVc2gksEiAX0CHb8IMyTr5VO9QMKb/w400-h215/1-Initial-ventures-Buffett-Guerin.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQA7oNtQypdIvyjppWgbeJyYMwGvqMAfThd0MyBQQ1-QCqDTaymlu2ec1JG7gFuPtonFxPPGQC01eDs_CkRLJ4WlqQRQyO_dc7RrzNuhdHMWmdAsaDYrSmVhG8OVu6cY1CYoRzX3khvVGX4xeu_EIJBgJhAjfSj81MC7nEEaNokbQw4kFRlMej/s1888/2-Great-partners.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="348" data-original-width="1888" height="74" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQA7oNtQypdIvyjppWgbeJyYMwGvqMAfThd0MyBQQ1-QCqDTaymlu2ec1JG7gFuPtonFxPPGQC01eDs_CkRLJ4WlqQRQyO_dc7RrzNuhdHMWmdAsaDYrSmVhG8OVu6cY1CYoRzX3khvVGX4xeu_EIJBgJhAjfSj81MC7nEEaNokbQw4kFRlMej/w400-h74/2-Great-partners.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzhkj783UJep3i2Uk-scJ-EJjyr7sxnYReE4On3fBTD10zqXQyMpylEYyFwyuJneAe0KcKwOxEpXGykgwA5qmxUVWCXWnRQTO-bJOyen8i5t1wfOshEVK99pR3vJPztPHlNDAXd6P2yQgmbVmyurAEilyZfOJ4pEbrOX_7HBdADHRq4UsGRsye/s1843/3-Wresting-with-pigs.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="387" data-original-width="1843" height="84" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzhkj783UJep3i2Uk-scJ-EJjyr7sxnYReE4On3fBTD10zqXQyMpylEYyFwyuJneAe0KcKwOxEpXGykgwA5qmxUVWCXWnRQTO-bJOyen8i5t1wfOshEVK99pR3vJPztPHlNDAXd6P2yQgmbVmyurAEilyZfOJ4pEbrOX_7HBdADHRq4UsGRsye/w400-h84/3-Wresting-with-pigs.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><b><i>Munger and his association with Buffett. How Buffett tells Munger to move into investments and start treating law as a hobby :-) </i></b></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzIkLEqgoQ99z5yzEIn8dXiekURpXvCJljuhs_xNms0zmDjpu3yvPJ5k21rcPJ0XpCLbEdJpLQvvNxEIwaOQ9YyIwgWCLlBfKVU38XrafrDFybfiQdi-mBhq10cY4Ok4O9TCWbIClXcoUaa2V1EvoCdi87CEk8qQ93-C_ZftThtUN8vSdPqeWh/s1888/1-Meeting-Buffett.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="956" data-original-width="1888" height="203" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzIkLEqgoQ99z5yzEIn8dXiekURpXvCJljuhs_xNms0zmDjpu3yvPJ5k21rcPJ0XpCLbEdJpLQvvNxEIwaOQ9YyIwgWCLlBfKVU38XrafrDFybfiQdi-mBhq10cY4Ok4O9TCWbIClXcoUaa2V1EvoCdi87CEk8qQ93-C_ZftThtUN8vSdPqeWh/w400-h203/1-Meeting-Buffett.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>Law as a hobby...</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhiBJ-SLfX7rp6pifAQFvFTuoS4pvycbHCHl7xMs6hazwLvOgi6UazTmystsjWu5bruRklpAAGCY6mgfJ6aAQX9C0ZiTPLtgTOUEBZhTaKOEIHLItkYJ0qz-mIF2FhtOibxrUO2go7pn31t6-7krubk58SbrjpfLdfkd_8OUIalKACBTlOYnlj/s1854/2-Treat-Law-as-hobby.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="533" data-original-width="1854" height="115" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhiBJ-SLfX7rp6pifAQFvFTuoS4pvycbHCHl7xMs6hazwLvOgi6UazTmystsjWu5bruRklpAAGCY6mgfJ6aAQX9C0ZiTPLtgTOUEBZhTaKOEIHLItkYJ0qz-mIF2FhtOibxrUO2go7pn31t6-7krubk58SbrjpfLdfkd_8OUIalKACBTlOYnlj/w400-h115/2-Treat-Law-as-hobby.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>Initial days.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEih4kSm-abwKK939cLY1NcyMRkDcDTFVd3shiaSfUAVpzO_HYaSj5SYnkKdBFbEtaSx7QYqAUmEwrkvmGiTTU6jLwImsKK-z47GyHYZkOm_S0FS1aIKD8ZRIxo_uB66pEylbN1cfmNy3u7X7XtPOBDQz8HRTYs_qIQ25dEvy6G0nwkDR5mmqHXR/s1791/3-Munger-Guerin.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1308" data-original-width="1791" height="293" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEih4kSm-abwKK939cLY1NcyMRkDcDTFVd3shiaSfUAVpzO_HYaSj5SYnkKdBFbEtaSx7QYqAUmEwrkvmGiTTU6jLwImsKK-z47GyHYZkOm_S0FS1aIKD8ZRIxo_uB66pEylbN1cfmNy3u7X7XtPOBDQz8HRTYs_qIQ25dEvy6G0nwkDR5mmqHXR/w400-h293/3-Munger-Guerin.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>Munger-Tolles Lawfirm. Wheeler-Munger Money management.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnZLUK1TWDkaXE4tC7045i-vJk9qhVHp-7bpsy85p7MOlEF1nmWylXsdIcnZWzXBghctvpXPuU2f46112ibSvjKWXso89iuADrUb9JPanhjGueQnkUsdmf4OMAzX2UBPPJG8zeckVcU_-awpSryosv-PU3vpvOAkkg19JAOIGT9atP2iO4aLGv/s1880/4-Munger-Wheeler-Leaving-Law.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="878" data-original-width="1880" height="186" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnZLUK1TWDkaXE4tC7045i-vJk9qhVHp-7bpsy85p7MOlEF1nmWylXsdIcnZWzXBghctvpXPuU2f46112ibSvjKWXso89iuADrUb9JPanhjGueQnkUsdmf4OMAzX2UBPPJG8zeckVcU_-awpSryosv-PU3vpvOAkkg19JAOIGT9atP2iO4aLGv/w400-h186/4-Munger-Wheeler-Leaving-Law.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZ9aLE62_P9VyFupea232CNP6MJ9-y679TrntUlGl5NBr3G93N_T0RqEI1kQmfrctrJ-Wk_iJVMDYS1Ef5xU2Z7LIEpMBiSB7T-uBECRomGCRZsguXYO6s65UAb-yLMiSqo9u6Fk3OwPmcH5vQHFPFro1OiOXq5851Uv9Bx60ZX1QUYEImeq2J/s1806/5-Munger-Money-Manager.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="671" data-original-width="1806" height="149" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZ9aLE62_P9VyFupea232CNP6MJ9-y679TrntUlGl5NBr3G93N_T0RqEI1kQmfrctrJ-Wk_iJVMDYS1Ef5xU2Z7LIEpMBiSB7T-uBECRomGCRZsguXYO6s65UAb-yLMiSqo9u6Fk3OwPmcH5vQHFPFro1OiOXq5851Uv9Bx60ZX1QUYEImeq2J/w400-h149/5-Munger-Money-Manager.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>Leverage. Why we do not know about Guerin - it's very interesting.. he might have been as popular as Buffett-Munger if he had not leveraged and lost out.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPMk1pFBJ6OLZdFuX_aPwHg1Q3jANXEm2QBPokR8_CPdQa1Piz8_grJF6KiSBDZNCFd0oF71hX6yQmcMu0VzGyh60ryT87ZRcGzM9rE_yYMju_pTJ8VEvuCbC110kYsU1jmAJeEzknmsR1ULjUzwXDnMWkOkonZ16RuKOBbNhTiamz1WsoGUWf/s1365/7-Again-Guerin.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="416" data-original-width="1365" height="122" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPMk1pFBJ6OLZdFuX_aPwHg1Q3jANXEm2QBPokR8_CPdQa1Piz8_grJF6KiSBDZNCFd0oF71hX6yQmcMu0VzGyh60ryT87ZRcGzM9rE_yYMju_pTJ8VEvuCbC110kYsU1jmAJeEzknmsR1ULjUzwXDnMWkOkonZ16RuKOBbNhTiamz1WsoGUWf/w400-h122/7-Again-Guerin.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPjyXF07hRSRDK9TTNwhD9poHU5XGTKdXWPorknN1_VIyQ6ei5L23Ky5dJdihtZpCsrRNahCjmLbJGTS7H__qgt2AAJaRpMoKe0zNCs56J5tdLNFKjbojaJzRPdkQhlG2cyE7njv72ZkjyM-sAY9bybG0Wuvj6E0QYxE-coRPE2RwO3pnZCtV2/s1868/6-Bailing-Rick-Guerin.jpg" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1324" data-original-width="1868" height="284" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPjyXF07hRSRDK9TTNwhD9poHU5XGTKdXWPorknN1_VIyQ6ei5L23Ky5dJdihtZpCsrRNahCjmLbJGTS7H__qgt2AAJaRpMoKe0zNCs56J5tdLNFKjbojaJzRPdkQhlG2cyE7njv72ZkjyM-sAY9bybG0Wuvj6E0QYxE-coRPE2RwO3pnZCtV2/w400-h284/6-Bailing-Rick-Guerin.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><b><i>Berkshire thoughts</i></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Their first big buy - See's Candies.</div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhborgIWYuQAqekKI1TH7CBFNEeCyRLxiKYVmFPIOf9ieD_MOuqjZFaYRuokRJlwszptOVE4YmIftArJWBEO_xA9OrdQskPz1EpVoP3D13Dq6zndRSJkZ7E0r6rXQQEPemaf76SzwoIuURuDoIWBPJBswhhNFbA-eGKZAId3fDEmTKhh7RkS9Bw/s1586/1-Buying-Sees.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="896" data-original-width="1586" height="226" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhborgIWYuQAqekKI1TH7CBFNEeCyRLxiKYVmFPIOf9ieD_MOuqjZFaYRuokRJlwszptOVE4YmIftArJWBEO_xA9OrdQskPz1EpVoP3D13Dq6zndRSJkZ7E0r6rXQQEPemaf76SzwoIuURuDoIWBPJBswhhNFbA-eGKZAId3fDEmTKhh7RkS9Bw/w400-h226/1-Buying-Sees.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>Wesco Control.</div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAfTbSs7GL1BkgSoI1IXjoSBBEqR7Zh-KXmIWbkJe8PUH_8fiWyCfrgluFMmIdZJMN3HHVYFAmBPDrVwOjrIH6VRmYv2ZiXJnXneHEtZmJxWzXbKM0ylW41ehxhaai2hOuLsL9Vt1gV77k4G0jsSePAhZlJml1SEoGqU61yLYhc2eOJAzVnSnp/s1828/2-Wesco-Large-bets.jpg" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1264" data-original-width="1828" height="276" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAfTbSs7GL1BkgSoI1IXjoSBBEqR7Zh-KXmIWbkJe8PUH_8fiWyCfrgluFMmIdZJMN3HHVYFAmBPDrVwOjrIH6VRmYv2ZiXJnXneHEtZmJxWzXbKM0ylW41ehxhaai2hOuLsL9Vt1gV77k4G0jsSePAhZlJml1SEoGqU61yLYhc2eOJAzVnSnp/w400-h276/2-Wesco-Large-bets.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Committing large capital to great ideas.</div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0kquekAurJY1XS5iv8pxC0wgyBcM3-PY4Ywr4omoUnNHXJvDwqKD-lpdt19HeZWa7jH7mZpe0T8WwB_A18aGFdNKsZbWMQDGUiX5psHdazSul7LsWRNz9gdgbYMlrd2Qo2ndrn-kuM1oqqJJ7v_es2H6QJkQ9wXthFmZ4Zbh4xUDo_gP-2jI6/s2444/3-Quick-decisions.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="580" data-original-width="2444" height="95" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0kquekAurJY1XS5iv8pxC0wgyBcM3-PY4Ywr4omoUnNHXJvDwqKD-lpdt19HeZWa7jH7mZpe0T8WwB_A18aGFdNKsZbWMQDGUiX5psHdazSul7LsWRNz9gdgbYMlrd2Qo2ndrn-kuM1oqqJJ7v_es2H6QJkQ9wXthFmZ4Zbh4xUDo_gP-2jI6/w400-h95/3-Quick-decisions.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>Delegation.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicKD-9CqBw4nHIDux8MUWRq9hfBw3vFtH0mnYcxwbWZp0nYivqSFe-QgPr_9uW_xIlGXwFHEm2iwx8EZ2p1pk-GfozzqCOlYdpr7ORNdF6BTVCCc2W1l4FpILh-AhIGP38ttUbW3LKvg1roRz0F2O6gdddSwsyhthtKM7JK-eTCzB_MB1Zco_B/s1679/1-Leaving-people-alone.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="331" data-original-width="1679" height="79" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicKD-9CqBw4nHIDux8MUWRq9hfBw3vFtH0mnYcxwbWZp0nYivqSFe-QgPr_9uW_xIlGXwFHEm2iwx8EZ2p1pk-GfozzqCOlYdpr7ORNdF6BTVCCc2W1l4FpILh-AhIGP38ttUbW3LKvg1roRz0F2O6gdddSwsyhthtKM7JK-eTCzB_MB1Zco_B/w400-h79/1-Leaving-people-alone.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>Bet sizing. Big Ideas.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhP9DY2F81CK9YHZrWAMCZwE9JWqrXI9xEPDTvJxIUMz5C8_2I3KsT7nZBW8UtwmBS-2fepWjfS8s4sTq6KHpxnk8mpuiP04i6rKo5F5lx4Mv4ZXmUhIl7CrmzJtb6sudHvDVuGZyIkwk8qGewDGYgNmxOe1OdD5ukbbmemjiq3wKXCivs9P28u/s2084/1-Big-Ideas.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="400" data-original-width="2084" height="76" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhP9DY2F81CK9YHZrWAMCZwE9JWqrXI9xEPDTvJxIUMz5C8_2I3KsT7nZBW8UtwmBS-2fepWjfS8s4sTq6KHpxnk8mpuiP04i6rKo5F5lx4Mv4ZXmUhIl7CrmzJtb6sudHvDVuGZyIkwk8qGewDGYgNmxOe1OdD5ukbbmemjiq3wKXCivs9P28u/w400-h76/1-Big-Ideas.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLU-9hCF0nHfo0MM0LggMUur7c8PRerK3RAZBolv1vPb15h8xUpwb2swDX5Q-fjTzM436bXC3QMJw5rq7-I3L0WTSIQGABnh55NI4EOmW63X8I4MwTMaH69cLqQTUGFh5FqnTkNIM6bDVFWiZ88Nl35poVTHLighyDoU2rWvh6au3M5IhZWbKs/s1588/2-large-bets.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="320" data-original-width="1588" height="80" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLU-9hCF0nHfo0MM0LggMUur7c8PRerK3RAZBolv1vPb15h8xUpwb2swDX5Q-fjTzM436bXC3QMJw5rq7-I3L0WTSIQGABnh55NI4EOmW63X8I4MwTMaH69cLqQTUGFh5FqnTkNIM6bDVFWiZ88Nl35poVTHLighyDoU2rWvh6au3M5IhZWbKs/w400-h80/2-large-bets.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>Concentration.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4PYVf1ZMqeMDsrmbyih1Lti98cwSnagU5S-c3kznMxO6w0fo3n8Ez4cMyq6eEgzqc5Zryuw7oowueWcio3ofLK7-Zpf4BWkDj6CVYlOt76mQTg2MYO-Xr_RhVCWTyaoEk4LECLcp8pcCsaNPAjEt9qJy2Q_SxtsWNb7EqIA0PKaYaVqqF0gxJ/s1878/4-Concentration.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="648" data-original-width="1878" height="138" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4PYVf1ZMqeMDsrmbyih1Lti98cwSnagU5S-c3kznMxO6w0fo3n8Ez4cMyq6eEgzqc5Zryuw7oowueWcio3ofLK7-Zpf4BWkDj6CVYlOt76mQTg2MYO-Xr_RhVCWTyaoEk4LECLcp8pcCsaNPAjEt9qJy2Q_SxtsWNb7EqIA0PKaYaVqqF0gxJ/w400-h138/4-Concentration.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>Reading.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbNQI1CUSZMyPETkUAZxUYNyXW8J0PCzuib1fQ6w3UJMRpPQDxzVJntS1m6pPdb__ac9nKONqQVH1_Z7Vk1McqgfYQItFLoFULH0P6waESy1Vl3l_9wR8FINGH6FlReZ6wr9SYrsGQBNDgsZC-KYP0k40CCxZ-xFF1tifhtGw2EJmou_1eTgWG/s2360/3-Reading.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="246" data-original-width="2360" height="41" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbNQI1CUSZMyPETkUAZxUYNyXW8J0PCzuib1fQ6w3UJMRpPQDxzVJntS1m6pPdb__ac9nKONqQVH1_Z7Vk1McqgfYQItFLoFULH0P6waESy1Vl3l_9wR8FINGH6FlReZ6wr9SYrsGQBNDgsZC-KYP0k40CCxZ-xFF1tifhtGw2EJmou_1eTgWG/w400-h41/3-Reading.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>On opportunity cost. Having no master plan.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhY8KGlcJYCq0pYH7JHs0dxs30tYGneqvaA5bAhI8qS_5W0jWBAQlnZmcdmtgGQAZMJGk2S1O7hzJtlJc_WjCBx_R8WwNHoIge1mGqBJvVmHdzphItAygzV9JFa1Ds6_iPyRTc0iyM5b-zvInZTtJhufNTwpfV5nVGWlUIIKKQuhdx0A1xE0h7W/s1920/1-Opportunity-cost.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="378" data-original-width="1920" height="79" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhY8KGlcJYCq0pYH7JHs0dxs30tYGneqvaA5bAhI8qS_5W0jWBAQlnZmcdmtgGQAZMJGk2S1O7hzJtlJc_WjCBx_R8WwNHoIge1mGqBJvVmHdzphItAygzV9JFa1Ds6_iPyRTc0iyM5b-zvInZTtJhufNTwpfV5nVGWlUIIKKQuhdx0A1xE0h7W/w400-h79/1-Opportunity-cost.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgz84EpylnmUkb8rzEAbdBe6fCyY5DHSiVZ1puNUryRCbn7o9jkmUrMmzfvQ-aUPIntvLs0VPHR3RDHEl5Y2ca5ElBgIjyD0X_KFmYba27z4Go_Y1S_91QXluZOHdPMd-iesPa-yFLrhngq2qdV19AOQ25RMLsMXT5be0CwQ6NTs9XSUrwket4D/s1503/2-No-Masterplan.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="264" data-original-width="1503" height="70" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgz84EpylnmUkb8rzEAbdBe6fCyY5DHSiVZ1puNUryRCbn7o9jkmUrMmzfvQ-aUPIntvLs0VPHR3RDHEl5Y2ca5ElBgIjyD0X_KFmYba27z4Go_Y1S_91QXluZOHdPMd-iesPa-yFLrhngq2qdV19AOQ25RMLsMXT5be0CwQ6NTs9XSUrwket4D/w400-h70/2-No-Masterplan.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><b><i>Crisis. Solomon - LTCM - Accounting - Finance. etc..<br /></i></b><div><br /></div><div>Leadership mistakes of Gutfreund.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjT_XndE-hr1AXGJjB4KgllNp6lCam0xar5W6BdHrByHMA8mBCCBiMR2V0PybUpo2cCuMwNPpfe5cYa4wmY3t1kayLA8Tb3gQdBlY3wzKasxt7tbZTzDQCXOBaaT8i2eNf9uquhMsAQPUigNy1BE27k4cWhsSKnbNPfQ3N-tjYPUCpeAeos2sSg/s1978/1-Gutfreund.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="334" data-original-width="1978" height="68" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjT_XndE-hr1AXGJjB4KgllNp6lCam0xar5W6BdHrByHMA8mBCCBiMR2V0PybUpo2cCuMwNPpfe5cYa4wmY3t1kayLA8Tb3gQdBlY3wzKasxt7tbZTzDQCXOBaaT8i2eNf9uquhMsAQPUigNy1BE27k4cWhsSKnbNPfQ3N-tjYPUCpeAeos2sSg/w400-h68/1-Gutfreund.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>Fed loses faith. </div><div><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhb_GXHgt1psBebALOZ4KDX-v_YkVZjYjJPLPjN1W73BVT3zJwvi_VzuSGy9jLNolA8-79d3FoaKJErQ_2r2UF6Ozvdosj1UIrd9HlOKdXBjOEW5ysxnm4RiStf0PUJLu3tBX9GY3g_lW8xr__wAgJ5wyoFitQ4H2ZEsGzN5FADZYw5rFWm5LfD/s1982/1-Solomon-crisis.jpg" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="744" data-original-width="1982" height="150" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhb_GXHgt1psBebALOZ4KDX-v_YkVZjYjJPLPjN1W73BVT3zJwvi_VzuSGy9jLNolA8-79d3FoaKJErQ_2r2UF6Ozvdosj1UIrd9HlOKdXBjOEW5ysxnm4RiStf0PUJLu3tBX9GY3g_lW8xr__wAgJ5wyoFitQ4H2ZEsGzN5FADZYw5rFWm5LfD/w400-h150/1-Solomon-crisis.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>LTCM post-Solomon. Intellect is not key for investing.</div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsMu5hcH99Bwyun2sWN7-LPwNF0ykMzX-oOF4zcy6Z5_pN3Plwpyoy96fHe6SuhhqSrffIujK_k9GQXg_VLLNVpAumf9rVZpB665qLLrDdW_ojfexMRdrerO2LDWOwEYZwo274wbpV-LJG7wJ0SA51_A2AF1IK2nyJL4PzyXy9Wqh1NfTnwrms/s1872/1-LTCMcrisis.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="587" data-original-width="1872" height="125" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsMu5hcH99Bwyun2sWN7-LPwNF0ykMzX-oOF4zcy6Z5_pN3Plwpyoy96fHe6SuhhqSrffIujK_k9GQXg_VLLNVpAumf9rVZpB665qLLrDdW_ojfexMRdrerO2LDWOwEYZwo274wbpV-LJG7wJ0SA51_A2AF1IK2nyJL4PzyXy9Wqh1NfTnwrms/w400-h125/1-LTCMcrisis.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div>Options. </div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3n5quGsnZeAGdRW_i4fTuseETuISsbbY_J-IPqhsH6UqLyjwDaSKCKzLVjhjcVYv-vRTSjwt7yMnNeq-pKHCT1DGvdWsgLnFhQraRs8h_NECHhENcluZjvNuO17h78VCNENlXVNcsvunD5AoQU1GBzAy6m50WNWmROUmrE3xvvLlnps6VneJS/s1662/1-Options.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="680" data-original-width="1662" height="164" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3n5quGsnZeAGdRW_i4fTuseETuISsbbY_J-IPqhsH6UqLyjwDaSKCKzLVjhjcVYv-vRTSjwt7yMnNeq-pKHCT1DGvdWsgLnFhQraRs8h_NECHhENcluZjvNuO17h78VCNENlXVNcsvunD5AoQU1GBzAy6m50WNWmROUmrE3xvvLlnps6VneJS/w400-h164/1-Options.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Teaching Finance.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhV3ZneLo39ihop82TPwMaF9ZVK3ToFvUvX5AaoV0hVXjmgkvw43TuyDLvUT4WIF36IyvkG4OEdYr93fipwexJAKOan86QPSEaFJupUnqyXWaOiJVKaAyy8qbC1WvidvnHZMPv12Pm3yE0xJF57lIpuSn-B24aluBcMcnfbtTpPrNi69aksBO4F/s2080/2-Teaching-finance.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="174" data-original-width="2080" height="34" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhV3ZneLo39ihop82TPwMaF9ZVK3ToFvUvX5AaoV0hVXjmgkvw43TuyDLvUT4WIF36IyvkG4OEdYr93fipwexJAKOan86QPSEaFJupUnqyXWaOiJVKaAyy8qbC1WvidvnHZMPv12Pm3yE0xJF57lIpuSn-B24aluBcMcnfbtTpPrNi69aksBO4F/w400-h34/2-Teaching-finance.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Incentives and biases.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh34D4ihRf5DHX8kFbthfwrrilBVM0h3F9U1X-AI5DysboFQSDh18wakmXH91YnaMUd1q3Ol9gk4G-qCilkULz8hm9npYNN28WDxjuyrSr_EU8IT0TxzpVKk6mSGe3LPsxKRPOIrmXFj28pibJ8aB4qOcwImBU5UN76vLozuISZZmDrXEx8uCbE/s2108/3-Biases-Incentives.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="264" data-original-width="2108" height="50" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh34D4ihRf5DHX8kFbthfwrrilBVM0h3F9U1X-AI5DysboFQSDh18wakmXH91YnaMUd1q3Ol9gk4G-qCilkULz8hm9npYNN28WDxjuyrSr_EU8IT0TxzpVKk6mSGe3LPsxKRPOIrmXFj28pibJ8aB4qOcwImBU5UN76vLozuISZZmDrXEx8uCbE/w400-h50/3-Biases-Incentives.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>Career choices. Starting early, fooling yourself.</b></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLDfADQaEoBs2lObb9fbBRPdIEo-il4CRGGUqxhdY_xusQ-kkfPou2uo8Y07NatDq7SNLdseXyUnql42vPtRJ9lRTT1UOGSCBfFQ6reTBc5TNa6OCFUKWjBTwowkrjNSBVLGXOqj9z3tfYcHmPhPh2ulja8XhSyzU-bzmw-3jmclngksuC6yQF/s1802/1-Redeeming.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="322" data-original-width="1802" height="71" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLDfADQaEoBs2lObb9fbBRPdIEo-il4CRGGUqxhdY_xusQ-kkfPou2uo8Y07NatDq7SNLdseXyUnql42vPtRJ9lRTT1UOGSCBfFQ6reTBc5TNa6OCFUKWjBTwowkrjNSBVLGXOqj9z3tfYcHmPhPh2ulja8XhSyzU-bzmw-3jmclngksuC6yQF/w400-h71/1-Redeeming.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>First Million.</div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1aTt714THtbNH_6B9OlArM20y_i4Cwg0-c1K3Caa9wnpg6v19zolsGWtTpNLsRuA9v919xrpkNDUZbgF81k4yHPw6JgBNcZkoN6XVWT4eovFcefvsU9A8nRQQ6gL9xEffpXWSyG583IwESEqUKyUNufizZjSXVkNdD0PCF3JdS04zYingYwzA/s1852/5-Starting-early.jpg" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="555" data-original-width="1852" height="120" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1aTt714THtbNH_6B9OlArM20y_i4Cwg0-c1K3Caa9wnpg6v19zolsGWtTpNLsRuA9v919xrpkNDUZbgF81k4yHPw6JgBNcZkoN6XVWT4eovFcefvsU9A8nRQQ6gL9xEffpXWSyG583IwESEqUKyUNufizZjSXVkNdD0PCF3JdS04zYingYwzA/w400-h120/5-Starting-early.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div><br /></div>Taking difficult jobs.<div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWuspcXkB5X0X6SleZuYYLKVJnDDNbCv6wFPZAZYi3j8IZ2vSr1HiWmNj0AtP_1bpZgeOt-2-PgtlZnbScLFc5pR6R9Xm_3hnZTvuYDyGHNnl-xgPTDqYwI9OZnl-4kOPyTMOWzwElNG0x36lOADVynxiFi5n6ZxqMBmtiw5j32JjuVllmdGq_/s2064/1-Tough-ideas.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="828" data-original-width="2064" height="160" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWuspcXkB5X0X6SleZuYYLKVJnDDNbCv6wFPZAZYi3j8IZ2vSr1HiWmNj0AtP_1bpZgeOt-2-PgtlZnbScLFc5pR6R9Xm_3hnZTvuYDyGHNnl-xgPTDqYwI9OZnl-4kOPyTMOWzwElNG0x36lOADVynxiFi5n6ZxqMBmtiw5j32JjuVllmdGq_/w400-h160/1-Tough-ideas.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div>Fooling yourself.</div><div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivx8UaLjUYGiQW5-ClQmY8_NkVJ8NWdxgAOlWQAr4Yg9mfI3lA8jNyaMJZ5bMDZm7OS3sU5ayKtbxPFrkr_Ej_ID4gXpLECyElckMU_XwRnD8mngEvW68uBgkiKP0qIfHPYa8LvxS_dODM2L73Yll_XtqshtqUTjUideCFbDk_Ku2hW89ry0Zg/s1976/3-Fooling-yourself.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="310" data-original-width="1976" height="63" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivx8UaLjUYGiQW5-ClQmY8_NkVJ8NWdxgAOlWQAr4Yg9mfI3lA8jNyaMJZ5bMDZm7OS3sU5ayKtbxPFrkr_Ej_ID4gXpLECyElckMU_XwRnD8mngEvW68uBgkiKP0qIfHPYa8LvxS_dODM2L73Yll_XtqshtqUTjUideCFbDk_Ku2hW89ry0Zg/w400-h63/3-Fooling-yourself.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhriGPMa91rqIz0Ih-XyiZrMP0imtcKOSsV0UHyoLOOvNYFqKCixZbVckGqtZQbHriZbiNLGBGO_3iZiGwkKREqaG86lTI0WwXe9ro9tSCdeNnvNwRBRkFgjbIxp7QdtE0aM8Un1J5xuQ01_s6eLL4Im9_Extf466wV03Hi0Nq5gddCANmQeIjG/s1923/4-Investing-saving.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="476" data-original-width="1923" height="99" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhriGPMa91rqIz0Ih-XyiZrMP0imtcKOSsV0UHyoLOOvNYFqKCixZbVckGqtZQbHriZbiNLGBGO_3iZiGwkKREqaG86lTI0WwXe9ro9tSCdeNnvNwRBRkFgjbIxp7QdtE0aM8Un1J5xuQ01_s6eLL4Im9_Extf466wV03Hi0Nq5gddCANmQeIjG/w400-h99/4-Investing-saving.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><b>Philanthropy and Ben Franklin.</b></div><div><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBALZs4pObbsRrF-ziLV-K4AkWU8Tb-lnAE1YNKJyuLdPmo9DuvlIJxh7JJfns22Xdlbb3wRGYvHlp6UAyKC7mYoeXFy0UbLh0vUhl01jrHGtgRUMsu5QUc_mhrYb_masf29al8CpItq1mNd40v19SN6OOI8Hb70A4sM69GhU0YFVJi4FuYcP5/s1916/1-Franklin.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="636" data-original-width="1916" height="106" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBALZs4pObbsRrF-ziLV-K4AkWU8Tb-lnAE1YNKJyuLdPmo9DuvlIJxh7JJfns22Xdlbb3wRGYvHlp6UAyKC7mYoeXFy0UbLh0vUhl01jrHGtgRUMsu5QUc_mhrYb_masf29al8CpItq1mNd40v19SN6OOI8Hb70A4sM69GhU0YFVJi4FuYcP5/s320/1-Franklin.jpg" width="320" /></a><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div>A modern-day Ben Franklin.</div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_3lvdPmzVHiIJzKhFJ_AqrDKjCPBHwPFDaJNZCthbJJ4BqLyoafOFKpte_yTkn6CcUFm4KeiaVuU8DdKvIPNMqIf4B8oBMEfsq0Bo41dKrGhwLScZ2ycpChr_0cyG8prO4cYFxnv2BceUu9kht8AOWoTybMQ7AZv676a7gbeQU8HpcDRcql1m/s1888/1-Education.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="384" data-original-width="1888" height="81" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_3lvdPmzVHiIJzKhFJ_AqrDKjCPBHwPFDaJNZCthbJJ4BqLyoafOFKpte_yTkn6CcUFm4KeiaVuU8DdKvIPNMqIf4B8oBMEfsq0Bo41dKrGhwLScZ2ycpChr_0cyG8prO4cYFxnv2BceUu9kht8AOWoTybMQ7AZv676a7gbeQU8HpcDRcql1m/w400-h81/1-Education.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><br /><div>Take a bow. What a man. What a life well lived. This blog is more a note to myself than anyone else. </div><div><br /></div>Ciao till next time...Harsha</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br />Harshahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07448174492659018046noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13272260.post-16278493780081399432023-08-11T09:06:00.000+02:002023-08-11T09:06:09.250+02:00Year two out of corporate job - An update<div>I had written about leaving my corporate job and how I was doing a year ago. Too many things have happened since then and I'm excited every day. A former colleague was asking what is my year two update. I had brushed it aside that now I am not having time to write.</div><div><br /></div><div>I noticed that this year has been super busy and my blog has gone un-updated. Either I was too busy to write or I did not feel the urge to pen down anything. I have to at least make one customary update so I continue my blog for the 19th year with at least one blog post. Likely, I will make this a short post... not one of those meandering blogs I've penned down before. Time is in short supply.</div><div><br /></div><div>So, with that, here goes my story. For those who are new, here's my blog post of last year - <a href="http://harshav.blogspot.com/2022/08/financial-independence-year-after.html" target="_blank">Financial Independence: A year after leaving a corporate job</a>. </div><div><br /></div><div>A one-sentence summary is - I've gotten more busy than when I was working at Enphase. I've become a reluctant entrepreneur and gotten involved in a few companies. </div><div><br /></div><div><b><i>My activities</i></b></div><div><br /></div><div>First, an update on Dwaith. As I had written previously, one of my main reasons for charting out was to create a company (Dwaith), get a portfolio management service (PMS) license, and actively manage money.</div><div><br /></div><div>I've realized that I cannot fight SEBI and bureaucracy. The best way to navigate is by becoming entrenched in the system. Dwaith has become a full-fledged SEBI-registered Investment Advisory service. I've actively refused clients so I can focus on giving quality returns to the ones I have until I can convert this operation into a PMS (or an AIF Cat 2/3). The PMS/AIF is just around the corner at the end of the year.</div><div><br /></div><div>I am very thankful for some of my ex-colleagues who became my first customers. The returns have been phenomenal, but - more importantly, I get to interact with them on a regular basis which is even better. A lot more people have started approaching me now through word of mouth. </div><div><br /></div><div>Secondly, I've got two great partners in the two businesses I'm closely involved in - Ramesh @ <a href="https://www.zepcotek.com/" target="_blank">Zepco </a>and Rajesh @ <a href="https://www.poweroneups.com/" target="_blank">Power One</a>. One is a startup and the other is a well-established company that is poised to take off. Both companies play in excellent fields with large opportunities set ahead of them. </div><div><br /></div><div>We have a clear strategy and goalposts ahead at both these companies which is keeping me busy. From a five-day work week - I've suddenly got into a six-day workweek mode. I am not complaining.</div><div><br /></div><div>That apart, I continue to meet quite a few new people and companies. I've realized that when people come to know that they can bank on you and will not take them for a ride, quite a few quality people approach you for an association. I've got a lot of good luck and help from people, so <a href="http://harshav.blogspot.com/2017/04/altruism-helping-others-with-no.html" target="_blank">helping others</a> is a way of paying forward. </div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><b><i>Innovation and Entrepreneurship </i></b></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFxQ8M4sHYDqYjSeeVFTR2NZmN-4MKQMP1VdqKtZ89AHQFuYF0bW6hzY1bz42gtl1e0cM4gJQcT96BqIzYttyIpV6YDu8-5P_MHDa-DPqYqhGr4bmj8nXK0yhYbjp9dROQ_IQb5K35IYstLFMVdH_NFHKrSoJPe0vOIt937MjI9f1mDwNCg0cW/s266/innovation.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="190" data-original-width="266" height="286" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFxQ8M4sHYDqYjSeeVFTR2NZmN-4MKQMP1VdqKtZ89AHQFuYF0bW6hzY1bz42gtl1e0cM4gJQcT96BqIzYttyIpV6YDu8-5P_MHDa-DPqYqhGr4bmj8nXK0yhYbjp9dROQ_IQb5K35IYstLFMVdH_NFHKrSoJPe0vOIt937MjI9f1mDwNCg0cW/w400-h286/innovation.jpeg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div>Most importantly, I've realized India is poised for growth this decade. Nobody; not even ourselves can stop the growth. Young people with immense talent and potential are looking at creating new companies and sometimes, I wonder how people fresh out of college have the guts and gumption to start companies. I've become a reluctant entrepreneur by chance (I'm first to admit, it was not planned), and more importantly, I'm seeing young people around me being a lot more innovative and risk-taking. </div><div><br /></div><div>Energy, power electronics, manufacturing, motors, and associated industries are poised for enormous growth. These are the areas where I am focusing on. I cannot comment on others. I think we in India will slightly tweak the China growth model to make it our own. Our opportunity set is even bigger than China's. </div><div><br /></div><div>I was in China a few months back. I was completely taken aback at the kind of response a show like <a href="https://pv.snec.org.cn/?locale=en-US" target="_blank">SNEC </a>had. I was used to visiting <a href="https://www.intersolar.de/home" target="_blank">Intersolar</a>, <a href="https://renewableenergyindiaexpo.com/">REI</a>, <a href="https://www.all-energy.com.au/" target="_blank">All Energy</a>, etc in various countries before - but the sheer number of people attending the show in Shanghai blew my mind. Somewhere down the line, a hockey stick-type growth curve is waiting to unfold in countries like ours.</div><div><br /></div><div>India is just getting started. Five years out, it would be interesting to see how things pan out. </div><div><br /></div><div>I am super excited about the things I'm involved in. I think in some of the cases, we are charting out a new destiny. Here's a quote to sign off that I keep on my desk -</div><div><br /></div><div><i>As your desire is, so is your will</i></div><div><i>As your will is, so is your deed</i></div><div><i>As your deed is, so is your destiny</i></div><div><i>Your deepest desire is your destiny</i></div><div><i><br /></i></div><div><i>- Brihadaranyaka Upanishad</i></div><div><br /></div>Ciao till next time...HarshaHarshahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07448174492659018046noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13272260.post-9009460850822970482022-12-22T12:42:00.006+01:002022-12-24T17:08:51.875+01:00Vijayanagara: Built To Last<div>This is a blog post that has been a long time in making. Not because I did not have enough material. Unfortunately, I need a hard push and plenty of time on hand to write something. As I'm stuck at home now due to a gout flare-up, what better time to write than now!</div><div><br /></div><div>I've been very fascinated by history, not just Indian, but anything that I can get my hands on. Reading biographies and history books is like second nature and my wife feels that I continue to buy books just to taunt her, as many are unread.</div><div><br /></div><div>I had planned to take my family to visit <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hampi" target="_blank">Hampi </a>- both as a religious retreat and also as a learning tour to teach kids a little more about the kingdom of Vijayanagara, its art, and architecture. I continue to get their taunts that the West is where all great things are made, and I continue to shrug a little at that. At least to give a historical grounding - I thought this was the right trip to make at the right time. Great things can be built/created/made anywhere in the world.</div><div><br /></div><div>Also, the timing was right as summer was off and it's a good time of the year to visit the arid regions (called "Bayaluseeme" in Kannada, the local language) of Hospet, the large town adjoining the ruined city of Hampi. The visit was made in September, already 3 months back!</div><div><br /></div><div>This is likely to be a long blog post. But, I'll try to stitch the various pieces together. Interestingly, there are works of wonder that still exists from the Vijayanagara days. There are still remnants of their contribution that we still use every day. At least, I <b><i>eat</i> </b>it every day. </div><div><br /></div><div><b><i>Historical background (Medieval South India):</i></b></div><div><br /></div><div>The ruins of Hampi, though beautiful, are reminders of the last great local Indian empire. There have been quite a few empires before them that were more powerful and more spread out. Like the Cholas, Pandyas, Cheras, Chalukyas, Gangas, and Gajapatis (most of these kingdoms were local kingdoms that were not yet conquered by the Turks/Sultanates). </div><div><br /></div><div>To give a summarized view (that is my view) of medieval to pre-modern non-Turkish Indian history, the last great time period where Indians really had a big technological edge was during the times of the Cholas. Post 11th - 12th centuries, there was a gradual inward-looking mentality (preservation more than expansion) that developed. Northern India was firmly under the control of the Turks. Knowledge makes people explorers, whereas the destruction of knowledge makes people inward-looking. </div><div><br /></div><div>Some of the greatest learning centers in the world during the medieval times were: <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nalanda" target="_blank">Nalanda </a>(present-day Bihar which operated as an institute of higher education from 400 AD to 1200 AD), <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vikramashila" target="_blank">Vikramshila </a>(again, present-day Bihar which was built as a secondary school to give some competition to Nalanda from 800 AD to 1200 AD) and prior to that, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taxila" target="_blank">Takshashila</a> (present-day Punjab of Pakistan from 1000 BC to 400 AD). Many of the great inventors, linguists, educators, poets, and medical experts traveled to these institutes to learn. </div><div><br /></div><div>It is no coincidence that higher education institutions moved from Takhsashila to Nalanda sometime during 400 AD when the white hun (pre-Islamic invaders) onslaught had started. The education mechanism during those times likely involved reading books/parchment papers/medical treatises, etc by becoming a resident student for multiple years at these universities. Chinese scholars spent multiple decades copying some of the texts, translating them into Chinese to take back to their cities, so they can build similar learning centers. It is only through their stories, that we come to know about the details of these places. Oriental scholarship, therefore, was very confined to very few centers. </div><div><br /></div><div>The destruction of these universities takes back learning by many decades or even hundreds of years. The learnings of Greeks and Romans were lost to the world until around the 1300s/1400s when they started becoming more popular with universities in Britain, France, Germany, and more importantly Italy teaching students.</div><div><br /></div><div>Until the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printing_press" target="_blank">Gutenberg printing press</a> was invented in 1440, the way you mass-published books was by sitting painstakingly to copy entire texts by hand. The task usually extended to multiple decades if you wanted to copy whole treatises. It's kind of funny that many of the older Sanskrit hymns, and lessons are very expressive with very few words (many are even written as summary poems - so they can be learned faster). It was like the Twitter of the old :-)</div><div><br /></div><div>Anyway, I am digressing. So, let's get back to a summarized background story. One clear indication of power centers is knowing how religions spread, and their origins. Four of the top ten religions today in the world have origins in India - Hinduism, Jainism, Buddhism, and Sikhism. </div><div><br /></div><div>The destruction of Nalanda and Vikramshila by the Khalji's in 1200 AD was like the passing of the baton, so to speak. The new centers of learning - the Universities of Oxford/Cambridge/Bologna came to be founded around the 11th - 12th centuries. Just as we Indians were turning inward-looking, spurred by new universities and the printing press (which magically reduced the time-to-market of books), the west started galloping ahead. </div><div><br /></div><div>Printed books vastly improved the knowledge consciousness of the Europeans and ushered in the era of Renaissance in the mid-1400s/1500s. The old learnings of Greeks and Romans were becoming more popular with books being translated and published in local European languages.</div><div><br /></div><div>It's also a magical reminder that humankind can do wonderful things and forget many of the wonderful things it has done if there is no proper teaching (or passing-on) mechanism. </div><div><br /></div><div>Sir Isaac Newton, the famous English scientist, once said, “<i>If I have seen further, it is by standing on the shoulders of giants.</i>” Of course, Newton wasn’t literally standing on the shoulders of giants. Newton was explaining that his ideas didn’t come from him alone. He relied on the ideas of those who came before him. When Newton used the word giant, he meant people who were giants in the scientific community. </div><div><br /></div><div>The problem in medieval India was, that it had lost wholesale the works of all the previous giants when the universities of Nalanda and Vikramshila burned down. Supposedly, it is said, it took over 3 months to burn those vast libraries down. </div><div><br /></div><div><div>It's kind of interesting to imagine the possibilities of having some of these really old institutions like Nalanda/Vikramshila to survive, right? Who knows what they had in store.</div><div><br /></div></div><div>So, after the Cholas - who were the last great Eastern ship-builders exploring the Indian Ocean, the Indian nation-state was basically getting insulated. Preservation became more important than growth. Even to this date - most elderly people talk about not losing (instead of growing). Gold, today is the most preferred form of investment for most Indians - because it is ingrained in the psyche that anyone can steal, even the government.</div><div><br /></div><div>Anyway, medieval India was still a pretty rich place to be. The exports had always been more than imports for India until the late 18th century. Industrialization basically tilted the scale so to speak. The advent of oil tilted the export-import balance even more so. </div><div><br /></div><div>Before the technology age, labor arbitrage was the principal arbitrage known to man. Now, in today's world - it is (1) labor, (2) capital, and (3) knowledge (or technology), in ascending order of hierarchy. </div><div><br /></div><div>Since labor arbitrage was well known to the Indian kings - they employed that to their advantage with great building works. They had basically lost the technological advantage they previously held for many centuries which had prevented people from conquering their lands and ruling them much before. </div><div><br /></div><div>The slowly winding down pre-modern kingdoms of India were now becoming the students from being the teachers of before. Though they had a significant export surplus, they were learning the art of war from the early gun-powder empires (Ottoman Turks, Safavid Persians, and Delhi Sultanates) and the use of fast cavalry and arquebus/muskets from Europeans.</div><div><br /></div><div>One such kingdom that learned fast was Vijayanagara. This kingdom was built on the ruins of three main kingdoms which had succumbed to the Delhi Sultanate's onslaughts - Hoysalas, Kakatiyas, and the Pandyas. It is a shame that even today a well-written book about the genesis and demise of these pre-modern empires does not exist. </div><div><br /></div><div><b><i>Vijayanagara Empire:</i></b></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikeuIwGie55kUpgh1tbFuShRQI84ensgh89NXR_fQnixKlDFm9BOSW7HyjxbNAF9cgSQFC4yK9T749MT-VMBsG7Dq-F2BS-VyiQD7GrepPoH3ku0oyJIyOwnugBptUOKSL8tJ8vp5DVmag0PQobVX9BNnS23JLRiLnCkrsyVbMMQuLBDP1zw/s721/Hampi-sarvesh.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="480" data-original-width="721" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikeuIwGie55kUpgh1tbFuShRQI84ensgh89NXR_fQnixKlDFm9BOSW7HyjxbNAF9cgSQFC4yK9T749MT-VMBsG7Dq-F2BS-VyiQD7GrepPoH3ku0oyJIyOwnugBptUOKSL8tJ8vp5DVmag0PQobVX9BNnS23JLRiLnCkrsyVbMMQuLBDP1zw/w400-h266/Hampi-sarvesh.jpeg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><div>The "<i>Karnata</i>" kingdom (today called "Vijayanagara Empire" due to the ruins of their famous capital city, Vijayanagara) was started in 1300s by two generals - Hakka and Bukka Raya of Kakatiya kings who were captured, converted to Islam, and sent to rule present-day Hampi/Anegundi. Their kingdom stood rock solid for 300 odd years (actually close to 500 years if you consider their splinter weaker kings post 1600s); in comparison, British empire in India spanned little over 200 years.</div><div><br /></div><div>A learned sage Vidyaranya reconverted the brothers to Hinduism and laid the foundation stone for the new empire. Their successors were capable individuals who quickly reclaimed most of the territories that were lost to the Sultanates of the north. The wily South Indians were always able to snub the Delhi Sultanates for over three centuries (until Vijayanagara fell apart: that's a long story for another day).</div><div><br /></div><div>They came to rule over all of today's South India (states of Karnataka, Goa, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra, Telangana, and parts of Orissa and Maharashtra). Their cultural and trade influences often extended to Srilanka, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand. Much of the East Asian Hindu influence is either from this period (Bali, etc) or from the previous Chola periods. </div><div><br /></div><div>The Vijayanagara kings were great patrons of arts, culture, agri-sciences, and other pursuits that helped their subjects. Unfortunately, the last major scientific pursuits of Indians were all done before 1200 AD. Post destruction of Nalanda, it is rare to see an Indian scientific/medical achievement. It is not possible to note what they had done scientifically. Most work, if any is long gone.</div><div><br /></div><div>However, the actual engineering works built during those times were still excellent. Indians of the 14th and 15th centuries were probably the best civil engineers, architects, hydraulic engineers, and metal workers of their time.</div><div><br /></div><div><b><i>Cultural Renaissance:</i></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Just like there was a European Rennaissance that was mainly started in the field of art and culture which then translated to scientific re-awakening, there was one that happened during the Vijayanagara times. Same time period - late 14th century, early 15th century.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQx0GHCbuWkqE1VcqQrqKC5ZVYIQoIqcl7ZyhnZUJMt5QXcQphKchPu9fg3l7bJBakB4zbe1hMtGM7HOfObsgPJrN323HKfJ3mm4LhkDBJ4YIM54NJe9qJHLwV3ZxjG6AvDjb8Cn4eu_keH5i4DDVfEexJXIqU9Wz1weu1YAWB1v9NqcyfrA/s612/Hampi-chariot.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="408" data-original-width="612" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQx0GHCbuWkqE1VcqQrqKC5ZVYIQoIqcl7ZyhnZUJMt5QXcQphKchPu9fg3l7bJBakB4zbe1hMtGM7HOfObsgPJrN323HKfJ3mm4LhkDBJ4YIM54NJe9qJHLwV3ZxjG6AvDjb8Cn4eu_keH5i4DDVfEexJXIqU9Wz1weu1YAWB1v9NqcyfrA/w400-h266/Hampi-chariot.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>The best-known art forms - <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carnatic_music" target="_blank">Carnatic art & music</a>, Dasa Sahitya, Nritya, and Naatya (dance forms) were created during those times. They were basically the heady times when new ideas seemed to have taken root - just like they did in Europe.</div><div><br /></div><div>Also, the ports of Musiri (present-day Cochin) and Karwar-Goa (Present day Goa) became very significant after the capture of Constantinople in 1453. Reason - the land route for trade, called the silk road was now closed (or at least became impractical due to the huge trade tariffs imposed by the Turks). </div><div><br /></div><div>The problem was, that renaissance thinking just got cut in the early 16th century with the fall of the Vijayanagara empire. It is one of the "ifs" we will never know.. Could the same renaissance thinking not have propelled India to similar heights as Europe? </div><div><br /></div><div>The inherent stability just disappeared, I believe. "<b><i>PEACE</i></b>" is the ultimate lesson of all the oriental religions - Hinduism, Buddhism, Jaininsm, Sikhism (even though it was formed out of war) and influenced religions (borrowed heavily from Buddhism) - Confusionism, Taoism and Zenism.</div><div><br /></div><div>Peace and stability are the bed rocks of progress, scientific mind set and growth mindedness. It leads to innovation. Instability leads to chaos, confusion, stupidity, status games, one upmanship and more importantly to intolerance. India has been a land of tolerance for its inbred stability of minds. The cultural heritage is one of peace with nature, that's how 1000s of years of progress was built upon. </div><div><br /></div><div>Some remnants of that thought still remains in our lizard brains. Hopefully, that leads us to reawaken and grow again after a thousand years of decline and decay. </div><div><br /></div><div>Anyway, I'm again digressing. Back to the medieval South India. </div><div><br /></div><div><b><i>Trade and Conflict:</i></b></div><div><br /></div><div>There were principally few players in the trade game of the early 1400s. Persians, South Indians, and Chinese. During this time, all of Persia had basically become Islamic in nature. </div><div><br /></div><div>The last of the Parsis (old Zoroastrian followers - merchants and traders had moved into Indian coasts - around Maharashtra and Gujarat around this time). Some of the most iconic companies in India today are founded by this select group of Parsis - Tatas, Wadias, Pallonjis, etc.. What a mistake to throw them away Middle East??</div><div><br /></div><div>Anyway, the sea trade was now open in Persia in mid 1400s to early 1500s. It was soon monopolized by Arabic traders and pushed out local South Indian settlements which seemed to have been there for hundreds of years (if not for more than a millennia). The East sea routes were still open, and none seemed to have a monopoly.</div><div><br /></div><div>With one leg of sea trade - Persia/Egypt to India (Musiri/Goa) under Arabic domination - Europeans were now forced to pay punitive taxes. They were the affected party! The India-to-China sea trade had no new players. But, essentially, it became a game of punishing taxes for Europeans to trade with India. </div><div><br /></div><div>Essentially, the Indian states (read: Vijayanagara) on one side had nothing to lose. Instead of getting taxes from South Indian traders and Arab traders, now they were getting taxes from Arabs alone (who had now a monopoly on the Persian coasts with Arabic government support). They were anyway used to a trade surplus and except for the sulking Indian traders, they did not have to pacify other citizens much. </div><div><br /></div><div>Just imagine if the Vijayanagara kings of those times were able to think centuries ahead. They could have just demanded that traders be allowed to trade with no favoritism on the Persian coast side!</div><div><br /></div><div>Just imagine in the present day, where American superiority is being challenged by wily Chinese who are buying up all the rare earth mines Lithium, Permanent magnets, etc. 50 years from now, American kids will learn that they gave up their superiority for simple reason that Chinese created a monopoly on all key renewable material supply and increased prices on them 10x! Phew...</div><div><br /></div><div>Anyway, these things did not happen in 1500s, Indian Vijayanagara kings never really thought along those lines. The Portuguese discovery of India with a new sea route happened. Vasco da Gama reaches India in 1498. Well within 50 years of the Arab conquest of Constantinople.</div><div><br /></div><div>Out of the two key ports - Musiri and Goa, one of the ports -- Goa was conquered by Adil Shah of Bijapur (from Vijayanagara kings in the late 1470s). The other was under the command of Zamorin of Kerala who was a vassal state of Vijayanagara.</div><div><br /></div><div>It seems that the kings of Vijayanagara, though good at administration, decent at war-making, and patron of arts; were not so great at strategic long-term thinking. "<b><i>Strategy</i></b>" in the very long time horizon is the no. 1 weapon. Long-term games can only be played by very few people. Very very few. </div><div><br /></div><div><b><i>The Zenith - 1509 to 1529:</i></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Krishnadeva Raya (the greatest king of Vijayanagara) came to power in 1509. He was probably the last great Hindu king of India. He is still revered across South India. He was the principal reason Hampi grew to the size it did (and the remains that we still see today are of monuments he had commissioned to be built). He was a great administrator and a brilliant tactical commander. </div><div><br /></div><div>He won back territory his grandfather had lost to both the Bijapur Sultanates of the North and Gajapati's of the East. </div><div><br /></div><div>Some of the tact with which he won the wars are worth studying. He basically created a learning culture. He used Portuguese help during the siege of the Raichur fort to defeat the Bijapur sultan to claim back lost territory. He was mystified by the long range of muskets the Portuguese had, and asked his engineers to copy that as he had excellent ironworkers. His mini-war industry started making better muskets during that time which was critical in his war efforts.</div><div><br /></div><div>But, before all of his victories, he actually helped the Portuguese conquer the port of Goa from Adil Shah of Bijapur. His key advisor, Thimmarasu had supposedly told him to control the ports of his empire (and wisely so). He seemed to have ignored him.</div><div><br /></div><div>He could have as well conquered it himself. He is said to have given the manpower and materials needed for the conquest. What did he get in return - horses! At exorbitant rates. He did not care about rates, or so it seems to me. </div><div><br /></div><div>With that one foothold, it eventually paved the way for European entry into India. It's unlikely that he could have prevented their dominance altogether, as the technical capabilities and scientific-mindedness of Europeans had surpassed Indians at that time.</div><div><br /></div><div>However, it does seem that the cultural awakening and renaissance thinking of Indians was also getting started at that time. Immediately after their downfall - the same pattern of inward thinking re-dominated for many centuries.</div><div><br /></div><div>A strong sustained rule of Vijayanagara might have enabled a different history for India! Who knows, if this might have happened. These are alternate histories that one can only ponder upon.</div><div><br /></div><div>It is sad, that right after his death, the same renaissance thinking (where he developed firearms, gunpowder, etc) did not sustain, and his kingdom was overrun by Bijapur Sultanates in 1565 (35 years after his passing away).</div><div><br /></div><div><b><i>What's their lasting impact? What did they build, that stands even today?</i></b></div><div><br /></div><div>After his famous victories against the Bijapur Sultanates and Gajapatis of Orissa, he commissioned many engineering works: temples, buildings, waterways, canals, and man-made tanks for irrigation.</div><div><br /></div><div>Water is of prime importance when it comes to agriculture. He seemed to have taken that to heart.</div><div><br /></div><div>Exactly 500 years back - he constructed some of the best-in-class canals of those times - "Raya kaluve", "Basava kaluve", "hiriya kaluve" and "Thurthu kaluve". A manmade tank "Kamalapura tank", the largest holding tank still stands.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAvi-iyHAb9fZYpI8BYZ_fm0Ku23Qnw1I0kUQ9WjWy1fJR_52dBpO-oPJztqDcnJHvx6aZYjgawH3pOsbxFslctHB-36t94D2RSISImXZPX0_7mQC7yJrKyN--abfHmRO2P-6qzYw9Jxbs256h2cNQap9JkSD4nUxgxjWeLNdh2fn7nSpl_A/s1600/Hampi-Basava-canal.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1600" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAvi-iyHAb9fZYpI8BYZ_fm0Ku23Qnw1I0kUQ9WjWy1fJR_52dBpO-oPJztqDcnJHvx6aZYjgawH3pOsbxFslctHB-36t94D2RSISImXZPX0_7mQC7yJrKyN--abfHmRO2P-6qzYw9Jxbs256h2cNQap9JkSD4nUxgxjWeLNdh2fn7nSpl_A/w400-h300/Hampi-Basava-canal.jpeg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2xc07ACaVG6RiV-Ty-DAnhtENwAeavak_bl55oBhzYjb_wYd8-K7KHDYj0nISRGr4GeL4gvWxIAZrkcMY0AuRFPafoQ-Szg-8BGTMQ6ClPk919FGYP5lL1eZ0s8I2iiktyRIGcLJ92d4Bq3qvLB7Ai0rSXTnIYhcWEkc0ivegYiSJJSYWBg/s1600/Hampi-raya-canal.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1600" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2xc07ACaVG6RiV-Ty-DAnhtENwAeavak_bl55oBhzYjb_wYd8-K7KHDYj0nISRGr4GeL4gvWxIAZrkcMY0AuRFPafoQ-Szg-8BGTMQ6ClPk919FGYP5lL1eZ0s8I2iiktyRIGcLJ92d4Bq3qvLB7Ai0rSXTnIYhcWEkc0ivegYiSJJSYWBg/w400-h300/Hampi-raya-canal.jpeg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><div>During my visit of one week, I was able to gather from locals, as to who built these canals. There were two principal architects of the canals: 1) Arya Krishna Bhatta and 2) Garalugante Tippa. We'll not get their names from God-Google.</div><div><br /></div><div>For absolutely 500 years, they have been the main waterways of the region. A semi-arid region of Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh/Telangana, today has the highest production of Rice/Acre. All are irrigated by these canals. </div><div><br /></div><div>In the 1960s the Government of India built high-level canals (HLC) and low-level canals (LLC) on river Tungabhadra. This irrigation network irrigates 6.5L Acres of land in two states of India.</div><div><br /></div><div>The main variant of rice consumed by all South Indians is "<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sona_masuri_rice#:~:text=It%20is%20grown%20largely%20in,primarily%20in%20South%20Indian%20cuisine." target="_blank">sona masoori</a>". It is known for its unique texture and flavor. A major portion of this rice variety is native to the lands irrigated by these canals. </div><div><br /></div><div>The great temples of Hampi, though in ruins, are great to look at. Some of the stone carvings are works of great artists of those times and remind us that our forefathers had the capability to build wonderful, beautiful works of high caliber.</div><div><br /></div><div>The canals though, seem to be built to last. For giving us these oftentimes forgotten waterworks, we should thank the kings of Vijayanagara! </div><div><br /></div>Ciao till next time...HarshaHarshahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07448174492659018046noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13272260.post-57915955847696411522022-09-12T06:49:00.001+02:002022-09-12T06:49:36.650+02:00Quality People - Who You Spend Time With Matters<div>It's been a rather busy month. I was feeling that I had time on hand before, but things have just come in on my lap that requires focused work. In spite of trying to update my blog at least once every two weeks - I've not been successful. Mainly because, I've rarely spent time at the office, travel has taken my time - all work-related.</div><div><br /></div><div>So, this brings me to something fundamentally important. Who do you spend your time with? This is "the most important thing" that determines what you think, do, or feel. </div><div><br /></div><div>Improving the quality of people you deal with daily - automatically raises your bar. It's an interesting quality I've observed now. If you set a high enough bar - you'll deal with less noise, but the interactions that happen will add much more value.</div><div><br /></div><div>Anyway, it's important to spend a lot of time - reading and thinking. Having time on hand to think is necessary. Moving away from a "corporate job" immediately afforded me this luxury. However, I found a lacuna, as my interactions with high-quality people reduced. In a corporate job - you automatically come across both high-quality and low-quality people. </div><div><br /></div><div>It's difficult to cut out all the crap, but you do have a portion of interactions that make you feel that you've learned something, added a new skill, or in general, developed a connection with someone who has a refreshing point of view. This network - that uplifts your spirits is very valuable. The high-quality social interaction makes you slightly wiser.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5bVSL2hk7gd6Jyqa6txhEt3g-JMZhaH0X6M4b4Pw8LYs0hOQY4U688vK9FHr7kepRjd0a1s7uCnunHQVNJQ4DxV9pdP_qJn-WxhhrY9GJdhfY5q2-GnCsPO9Vhcpx-M1mbdeToT4TETcdQBNCJXnzWbyF8rpLTdV_aQ8MT9dF0nWPcl2z_Q/s750/Let-the-colours-fill-your-mind.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="750" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5bVSL2hk7gd6Jyqa6txhEt3g-JMZhaH0X6M4b4Pw8LYs0hOQY4U688vK9FHr7kepRjd0a1s7uCnunHQVNJQ4DxV9pdP_qJn-WxhhrY9GJdhfY5q2-GnCsPO9Vhcpx-M1mbdeToT4TETcdQBNCJXnzWbyF8rpLTdV_aQ8MT9dF0nWPcl2z_Q/w400-h400/Let-the-colours-fill-your-mind.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><div><u>Saying "no" to things:</u></div><div><br /></div><div>I started saying no to a few things in my life. I've written about this many times before and it never ceases to amuse me. Here are a few:</div><div><br /></div><div>1) Saying no to opportunities that do not excite me, motivate me, or improve me. Saying no to something purely for money - when time is more valuable</div><div><br /></div><div>2) Saying no to pure networking events. Business card swapping events. I had no business card until recently. Had to print some for consulting work (will write about this sometime, it's an interesting story)</div><div><br /></div><div>3) Saying no to negativity or gossip</div><div><br /></div><div>4) Saying no to over-working (it's an act of diminishing returns). To meetings. Do something, instead of nothing sort of work</div><div><br /></div><div>5) Saying no to ass licking. People pleasing</div><div><br /></div><div>The sad part is, by doing that I cut out 80-90% of my interactions socially. This dramatically reduced my ability to learn from good people. </div><div><br /></div><div><u>Saying "yes" when all reasons to say "no" are not present:</u></div><div><br /></div><div>I had to rediscover social networks. Build dramatically new networks which will bring me "value" and "learning" in areas I planned to focus on.</div><div><br /></div><div>The funny thing is, you do get some high-quality people, and high-quality ideas; though rarely, and then; the cycle of learning increases back again. </div><div><br /></div><div>I am in that phase currently. Some of these are purely lucky breaks - being in the right place at the right time, with the right skill sets. But, who cares how they come in. </div><div><br /></div><div>Suddenly, I'm involved in two separate companies now which are both interesting - one, an old-world company and another, which I'm starting. More importantly, the quality of people involved in both these companies is excellent. </div><div><br /></div><div>This is apart from my PMS venture which has taken a pause until I find the right partner there.</div><div><br /></div><div>The partner search is still "on" for PMS, but I've got enough on hand to learn and grow in the meantime. If you happen to read my blog accidentally, I am super interested if you are or know someone who might be the right partner to start an exciting PMS house. Just email me to start a conversation.</div><div><br /></div>Ciao till next time...HarshaHarshahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07448174492659018046noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13272260.post-41515126006002823862022-08-02T10:30:00.001+02:002022-08-02T11:37:55.922+02:00Financial Independence: A year after leaving a corporate job<div>I had noted to write something about this a year after I leave my corporate job. That time is now. Exactly a year ago was the last time I got a paycheck.</div><div><br /></div><div>I wanted to pen down some thoughts on what I would feel after a year out. I told myself that I'll sit down and write an account. Let me try to organize and draft this into a blog post. It may help some of the readers. </div><div><br /></div><div>I know the concept of FIRE - Financial Independence and Retire Early. I've loved to read some blog posts from authors like <a href="https://www.financialsamurai.com/" target="_blank">Sam</a>. Early retirement is not something that motivated me to leave Enphase (my previous company). But, financial independence was something important to me. </div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwdhr3cf_gLu0B-Qa5VDqEPIQEYdquBgADYq73Pfshj1KiFwFuWAlal1vmud5xXrh8cAIOz7tfwkVInzk681SUINSicvXKyzfekwnaDb2vxbh0TtDrj8YOPZS5oI_JRXA6sTwC_6uLdv8JYcU6WDgg10Hr_SMdVKcxP3iJB4qvYmG1m2lHAQ/s743/financial-independence.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="499" data-original-width="743" height="269" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwdhr3cf_gLu0B-Qa5VDqEPIQEYdquBgADYq73Pfshj1KiFwFuWAlal1vmud5xXrh8cAIOz7tfwkVInzk681SUINSicvXKyzfekwnaDb2vxbh0TtDrj8YOPZS5oI_JRXA6sTwC_6uLdv8JYcU6WDgg10Hr_SMdVKcxP3iJB4qvYmG1m2lHAQ/w400-h269/financial-independence.png" width="400" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>I loved what I did at Enphase; well for 90% of the time :-). There are always some frustrations. But, the happy times were far more than the frustrating times. </div><div><br /></div><div>Creating business plans and putting them in action, owning a product (and I always felt I owned the most important product in the company - the <a href="https://enphase.com/installers/microinverters" target="_blank">microinverter</a>), building a great team, and working with engineering & sales folks to tinker on ideas is a dream come true job. On top of that, in 2017, when I joined, the company was in some trouble and it was so much fun traveling to customers, differentiating our products from competitors, and winning back market share! And, growing business! Making it profitable.</div><div><br /></div><div>OK. I am deviating from what I wanted to write. I know. Let me get back to my story. I've always been passionate about Enphase. But, this blog is not about Enphase. Let me tell you my short story here. </div><div><br /></div><div><b><i>The back story...</i></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Early in my corporate career, I thought I should be financially independent by the time I'm 40. Seeing my father invest and tinker in stocks, I was hooked on the investing bug since my school days. </div><div><br /></div><div>I had built a portfolio even before my first job (though I realize, it was usually based on momentum). Analyzing companies, and reading their annual report, and quarterly earnings was not new to me. We used to get physical copies of annual reports at home (during the 90s) and I ended up reading them.</div><div><br /></div><div>My first paycheck in 2004 was for Rs. 9200, and I bought 200 shares of NTPC with that. I took a loan of Rs. 2000 from my father, as the IPO was at Rs. 56/share. </div><div><br /></div><div>Anyway, doing an MBA sort of muddled my concept of stock picking. It seemed market models, CAPM, etc. were used as proxies for business. I had hoped to get into a finance job but that got quickly squashed as <a href="https://www.nitie.ac.in/" target="_blank">NITIE </a>was not known for finance. </div><div><br /></div><div>Somehow, passion rarely dies. Investing bug got me to find teachers, and do quite a bit of self-study. I've written about that <a href="http://harshav.blogspot.com/2022/07/continuous-education-point-of-view-and.html" target="_blank">here</a>. </div><div><br /></div><div>In 2015-16, I tried to get into fund management when I was in the US. An interaction with one of the partners of Sequoia Fund, Roelof Botha, gave me some ideas. I also realized, that, I'm a misfit in an early-stage VC. My experience as a semiconductor guy was not of much use. But, my interactions gave me the idea of writing my own personal annual investing letters - so that one day - I can create my own investment fund. </div><div><br /></div><div>So, ever since 2016 - I started writing about how I have performed, in investing my personal assets in the form of an annual letter. I shared my investing letters with a bunch of people who I felt could be my partners a few years down the lane. </div><div><br /></div><div>During Christmas vacation at year-ends, I spent time reviewing and calculating my annual CAGR and writing a thesis on my investments for the year. I loved writing them. I kept at it till 2021.</div><div><br /></div><div>Anyway in the meantime - around 2018 - I felt that monetarily - I was doing fine and I could call myself financially independent.</div><div><br /></div><div>My definition of financial independence was - getting more dividends from my investments than my paycheck. Usually, dividends also grow - so, inflation usually gets taken care of.</div><div><br /></div><div>I simply felt that it was right for me to come back to India post-2018. There was a strong urge to do something in my country. I felt there would be a level of comfort and a zone of fulfillment here in India - even like building a team or creating an India-based product, etc. was something I looked forward to. </div><div><br /></div><div>Luckily, my wife was fine with that, and the kids were young enough. Within a year, I gave up my green card (not the best decision financially as I see now) and settled back.</div><div><br /></div><div>Anyway, by 2021, having spent 3 years here in India, and, feeling that my task at Enphase was now one of safekeeping, rather than growing - the urge to really get into full-time investment was biting me. </div><div><br /></div><div>At the same time, a mentor (who goes unnamed, actually more than one) stepped forward to help me. He offered to set up an investment vehicle in the US and invest. My annual letters from the past 5 years were at last helpful. Having good-meaning, well-wishers and mentors have been a blessing in my career. Someone, who is ahead of you in terms of life stage can act as a wonderful sounding board from time to time. </div><div><br /></div><div>I had created an entity in 2018 through which I invested and always felt I could get a SEBI license sometime and scale that up. So, these were my thoughts as I parted ways with Enphase last year. It also helps to be open and tell exactly what you are going to do, to people in the organization. Clarity of thought is important. If you are real, usually people on the other side of the table are real too. </div><div><br /></div><div>So, with the good wishes of the management team at Enphase, I charted out. That was exactly a year ago.</div><div><br /></div><div><b><i>So, what's happened in the past year?</i></b></div><div><br /></div><div>It's a mixed year. Nothing crazy good or bad. Things move slow when regulators are involved.</div><div><br /></div><div>As, soon as I left, I applied for a <a href="https://www.sebi.gov.in/sebi_data/docfiles/20625_t.html" target="_blank">SEBI PMS</a> license. I always felt it would be great to build something in investment management. </div><div><br /></div><div>After all, in my mind - I had an 8+ year track record (since 2013 audited) of investing with an annual rate of return of 37.1%. I had made money myself, having been financially independent for a few years already. Though, luck is a huge component in investing, I felt an element of skill was present in the numbers. Numbers don't lie - over long periods.</div><div><br /></div><div>Setting up an entity in the US, an investment partnership is easy. Unless you have $150M of assets under management, SEC (Securities Exchange Commission) does not have too many conditions. It is an entrepreneurial culture. The US loves people starting out new companies in any field! </div><div><br /></div><div>That, unfortunately, is not the case here in India.</div><div><br /></div><div>The way you look at anyone is usually with an amount of suspicion in India. The regulators seem to be set in their ways. There might be very legitimate reasons for the same, but over-regulating kills entrepreneurship. </div><div><br /></div><div>After multiple clarifications, SEBI rejected my PMS application a few months back. I did not officially get a reason for the rejection. </div><div><br /></div><div>Official requests for an explanation went about with no answer. Letters went unanswered. Unofficially, I was told that my personal track record of experience in investing is not considered "experience". My company checked all other boxes for the PMS, I was sounded out.</div><div><br /></div><div>I am looking at various alternatives as of today. Partnering with someone, hiring an experienced individual who "checks the box" for SEBI, etc.</div><div><br /></div><div>So, if you know anyone in this area who could potentially help, or partner with me - feel free to reach me through my blog/email/comments/tweet. </div><div><br /></div><div><div>A smart lawyer friend was telling me that I'm an idiot to start anything here. Just relocate to Singapore or Dubai and start-up there. Just route in money as an FPI! I am not ready to give up on India yet - it is better to fight the system to make it a little better than before, instead of moving. Playing long-term games is a kind of passion. I will need to stay at it for longer, a year is too short to decide. So, that's that.</div></div><div><br /></div><div>Apart from the frustration of "not going anywhere" on the PMS front, life has been great. </div><div><br /></div><div>On the home front, it is indeed enjoyable to see kids do well. They are getting enough attention from me as they are growing up, and they love it. My wife is not frustrated that I have late night calls or early morning calls. That is definitely a big plus in the past year. I feel that I am the sharpest I have been in over a decade. At last, I am hitting the gym daily. Trekking, cycling, and, meeting younger people. </div><div><br /></div><div>I am trying to help some start-ups. That is fun. I have been consulting on a few topics - in solar and semiconductor. I might actually end up starting something in either of the two fields. I am discussing this with a few experienced friends. There is so much potential. It would be so much fun.</div><div><br /></div><div>Talent is plenty in India. Channeling them in the right direction can do wonders. The West (the US and Western Europe) is basically stagnating. Any growth, on a massive scale, I believe, has to come from emerging markets. </div><div><br /></div><div>But, then again - ease of doing business is more of a marketing ploy in India. The actual issues, seem to be a hindrance - license, regulation, taxation, approvals, etc. </div><div><br /></div><div>Our nation seems to be in the clutches of controlling everything. I may pick an area where the regulators are not really knowledgeable enough to regulate. </div><div><br /></div><div>If you, as a reader are working on something interesting, I look forward to collaborating. Especially in green hydrogen, semiconductor, solar, or cleantech.</div><div><br /></div><div>For one thing, in the past year, I've never really missed the paycheck. </div><div><br /></div><div>I always felt that our addiction to paycheck and sugar is legendary. A lot of time would be required for de-addiction! That was my main worry.</div><div><br /></div><div>Maybe, I overthought that problem for far too long. Yes, dividend checks are infrequent. But, apart from that being a slight irritant, I've not felt a pinch at all.</div><div><br /></div><div>I guess each one of us has a different set of problems. A different set of goals.</div><div><br /></div><div>Now, someone was asking me if I missed my job. </div><div><br /></div><div>Definitely. I always felt great - building something, working on a project, working towards growth. Even preventing a problem, making mistakes, and correcting, was nice. I was passionate about making a difference.</div><div><br /></div><div>Also, in general, interacting with a set of high-quality people is always fun.</div><div><br /></div><div>I am still building my network in the field of investing - especially since I am basically unknown. Building a high quality network in a new field takes time.</div><div><br /></div><div>Literally, I've been super secretive in this field. Fame has no meaning in investing. Being right over the long term is all that matters.</div><div><br /></div><div>I also feel that people in the field of investment management are too theoretical. Most are really smart, but have little practical knowledge of building and running a business or a product. Not their fault, but they are in the financial field for far too long and sometimes, cannot differentiate between qualitative and quantitative matters. </div><div><br /></div><div>Analyzing a business is not just "excel modeling" - sometimes, cycles cannot be really modeled. It is understanding the key aspects that can affect the future. How management can build their vision while making the company stronger (financially stronger, building durable, enduring competitive advantages) over a period of time is very important. </div><div><br /></div><div>You cannot drive forward looking at the rearview mirror. You have to understand the range of possibilities (and probabilities) in the future.</div><div><br /></div><div>Sadly, running a business, creating a product - building competitive advantages around it, differentiating it, and working with customers, do not count as experience to SEBI. And, that is my frustration today on the PMS front. </div><div><br /></div><div>Anyway, I am happy that I am trying. The next 20 years will define if charting out on my own was better or not. I am deeply thinking about the future. </div><div><br /></div><div><i>"I think the best way to prepare for the future 20 years is to find something you love to do, to have a shot at being one of the best people in the world at it. Build an independent brand around it, with your name". - <a href="https://twitter.com/navalbot/status/1317556170559815680" target="_blank">Naval</a>.</i></div><div><br /></div><div>Anyway, this too shall pass. </div><div><br /></div>Ciao till next time...HarshaHarshahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07448174492659018046noreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13272260.post-15784659478660141692022-07-26T15:33:00.008+02:002022-07-27T06:16:11.792+02:00Green Hydrogen: My views on the sector. A story to unfold?<div>During Covid, I had looked at buying some Bloom Energy shares when it was trading around $3/share with a Price/Sales of 0.4x or thereabouts. I did not feel strongly about their Hydrogen story, but, who was to doubt that it was a steal at that price. After all, they had growth ahead, and eventually, they would start making money! I did not have enough cash in the US, so never acted on it.</div><div><br /></div><div>I never really understood the hydrogen story. I always felt it will never be produced cheap enough or in a distributed fashion that will make it usable with PV (using Solar PV for generation at low operational prices once Capex is done). </div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWxSeub5aef2RbrOuVeWcTJRYu4jrj2WjFnwGSQQgEir_LtMqbup31ioxz9_jbOkhzE-gPwmdTQP_h_6PYgJDNgc-0iJ20UJMs0S86JBYuKivjbalv7mfJEAIBRzqMuHGiF_egXBIybHm0_PFFqQpg_LaJ6BoEnYUVVyZPkw7REGflQccKQQ/s1800/hydrogen-fuel.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1093" data-original-width="1800" height="243" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWxSeub5aef2RbrOuVeWcTJRYu4jrj2WjFnwGSQQgEir_LtMqbup31ioxz9_jbOkhzE-gPwmdTQP_h_6PYgJDNgc-0iJ20UJMs0S86JBYuKivjbalv7mfJEAIBRzqMuHGiF_egXBIybHm0_PFFqQpg_LaJ6BoEnYUVVyZPkw7REGflQccKQQ/w400-h243/hydrogen-fuel.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>More recently, I got interested in this sector after speaking with a few knowledgeable friends who piqued my interest. I had really not given Hydrogen a thought as I felt Solar (PV) + Storage (Lithium) is the <u>only </u>way to go. You see, I'm a Solar guy. I feel strongly about the growth prospects there. It had blinded me to certain other possibilities.</div><div><br /></div><div>At the end of the day, PV + Storage alone has some drawbacks. Especially for a country like India. </div><div><br /></div><div>I'll try to articulate my thoughts below in this long article. I don't know how this post will unfold, but I'll try to solve this interesting problem here. </div><div><br /></div><div>I have a rough framework. What I normally write down in my sector analysis notebook, I'm putting my thoughts in a blog post. It may be better this way if someone watching this sector comments. I'd love to engage with people more knowledgeable in this space!</div><div><br /></div><div>For starters, I read Modi's Green Hydrogen policy that was released earlier this year. You can download it <a href="https://powermin.gov.in/sites/default/files/Green_Hydrogen_Policy.pdf" target="_blank">here </a>if you are of a curious mind!</div><div><br /></div><div>I missed the entire idea of Green Hydrogen until now. The news articles or policy documents do not articulate why "green hydrogen" is important. Or, why, anything, that is taking India a step closer to "energy independence" is of utmost interest.</div><div><br /></div><div><u>What's the big problem in India?</u></div><div><br /></div><div>Let's start with the problem statement. India, since independence, has acted on reforms only when it has been forced to act. Mostly. The 1991 balance of payment problem forced reforms upon our throats. Read more about that in this <a href="https://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/content/PDFs/Chapter11_04122018.pdf" target="_blank">longish RBI article</a> for background. </div><div><br /></div><div>The real problem for India is twofold: </div><div>(1) Increasing fiscal deficit: we are spending more than earning. That has always been a problem, there are various reasons. I'll not get into that. </div><div>(2) Trade imbalance (leading to current account deficit i.e., CAD): India imports more than it exports, which is a problem as we pay in USD. High capital inflows (FPI's pouring money), Remittances (NRI's pouring savings back) have been funding/financing this.</div><div><br /></div><div>The problem has escalated as foreign investors have pulled back money when interest rates have increased in their home countries (like the US) just when Oil prices have gone up.</div><div><br /></div><div>This is the main reason for INR falling sharply versus USD. It's a vicious cycle and will take time to correct itself. Either inflows (remittances, capital inflows) have to increase or outflows have to reduce. I am not an expert on the economy and cannot predict what will happen here. </div><div><br /></div><div>The larger problem of fiscal deficit (a) may not get solved anytime soon. The grip of socialism is not easy to loosen. Either the country has to grow its way out or the political will needs to be strong enough to cut down the deficit spending (reduce subsidies in various forms).</div><div><br /></div><div><b><i>So, what's the way out</i></b>: Increasing growth within the economy and reducing (or altogether eliminating) trade imbalance.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdnHUzoWzL-JHFqey4O0DOe71pKLjytP57eEYhjjS2rGUGr_oj2MS4OF39awcSR988u6N043-NRAso7DPO2_yhbE4SOjHeJf6GkjTJOVK53ZggcufPCjsu3c3USu5ON8T4jVSa8APtlFUaPHE0HCZRlX3W2KcC82VKcPeuuyzZUnLKyNsM-g/s893/trade-deficit.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="766" data-original-width="893" height="343" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdnHUzoWzL-JHFqey4O0DOe71pKLjytP57eEYhjjS2rGUGr_oj2MS4OF39awcSR988u6N043-NRAso7DPO2_yhbE4SOjHeJf6GkjTJOVK53ZggcufPCjsu3c3USu5ON8T4jVSa8APtlFUaPHE0HCZRlX3W2KcC82VKcPeuuyzZUnLKyNsM-g/w400-h343/trade-deficit.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: center;">Source: Financial Times</div><div><br /></div><div>The largest bucket under imports is "Oil". A third of India's imports are always oil. The latest breakdown of imports is as below:</div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGGb3QnoPby2CEdgofc5pb4OjfvlaoiFMb2J1SjSkY_Y6HEnjfV4xIrhlt_pHFwHDg6XLvhTCg4PGVoBw9o13936n13PBjND822qFuL6ZMqkX9hQlltDmHBGyYF801hsJnji7UbUyNPeNZYiF1DJTWHt-0pKD9PzizwOzjuGAvu3kQVu-_KQ/s1247/imports.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="709" data-original-width="1247" height="228" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGGb3QnoPby2CEdgofc5pb4OjfvlaoiFMb2J1SjSkY_Y6HEnjfV4xIrhlt_pHFwHDg6XLvhTCg4PGVoBw9o13936n13PBjND822qFuL6ZMqkX9hQlltDmHBGyYF801hsJnji7UbUyNPeNZYiF1DJTWHt-0pKD9PzizwOzjuGAvu3kQVu-_KQ/w400-h228/imports.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div><br /></div>The balance of trade (difference between exports and imports) for June 2022 is -$26B. Essentially the difference between exports of $40B and imports of $66B.<div><br /></div><div>The difference between being a net exporter to a net importer for the past few decades has consistently been "oil". If the government of our times in the long term (decade of the 2020s) solves this one critical problem - it would have lifted the country from a low-income, <u>emerging </u>nation to a strong mid-income <u>growing </u>nation.</div><div><br /></div><div>So, anyway - I have tried to provide a picture of why "energy independence" (self-sufficiency in terms of energy needs) is important. </div><div><br /></div><div>Off course, one could try to find more oil fields in India to increase oil production. After all, that's a possible solution. I always wonder if the deserts of Saudi Arabia or Africa (Libya) can store great oil reserves, why not the deserts of Rajasthan? That's probably a wrong comparison. We should try to explore more.</div><div><br /></div><div>But, oil is a dying fuel. It's unloved. Causes pollution. Increases greenhouse emissions. It's a fossil fuel. </div><div><br /></div><div><i>Just like the stone age did not end for lack of stones, so too the oil age will not end for the lack of oil.</i></div><div><br /></div><div>We need to leapfrog ahead.</div><div><br /></div><div><u>What are the possible solutions?</u></div><div><br /></div><div>Many countries use oil imports to augment electricity generation. That was the case with India before where Diesel and natural gas were used for electricity generation. Quite a lot (up to 30% of generation in the past).</div><div><br /></div><div>It has been reduced significantly now. Less than 10% of electricity generation is today through diesel/natural gas (source: <a href="https://powermin.gov.in/en/content/power-sector-glance-all-india" target="_blank">power ministry</a>). Fossil fuels (mainly coal) still account for ~60% of energy generation, while renewables form the rest. Back-up power (when there is a grid failure) is predominantly diesel gensets in India.<br /><div><br /></div><div>Solar is still <15% of generation while plans for 100GW+ Solar generation have been doing the rounds for quite a while now. I will not go into the details of the 100GW+ Solar generation plan. That might take a whole lot of space.</div><div><br /></div><div>Essentially the grid needs to be capable of handling that much amount of energy produced by solar PV. It will need its own overhauling. India's power distribution is much weaker than many peer nations. Our utility distribution companies (mainly state DISCOMs) are money-losing enterprises as farmers/consumers alike try to either get free electricity or steal electricity.</div><div><br /></div><div>Generating energy locally (in a distributed fashion) is the best way of powering local communities. Generating local solar power and using battery storage (either large lead acid-based systems or other technologies) is likely the most cost-effective way instead of creating multi-$B distribution networks from centralized power stations leading to further distribution losses (India <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/energy/power/economic-survey-flags-high-td-losses-in-power-sector/articleshow/80585965.cms" target="_blank">loses 20% of generated electricity</a> while distributing energy).</div><div><br /></div><div>Providing solar water pumps (for farmers), and using local distributed solar PV might become the norm going forward. That's clear in the various government schemes for rural electrification.</div><div><br /></div><div>We need to note, that India's energy consumption per capita is much lower than the western nations and will continue to grow. Massively adopting solar PV is a no-brainer. I think that's already clear to most. Baby steps in the right direction have been taken, but they need to leapfrog massively over time. </div><div><br /></div><div>But, even as that happens, this addresses only <10% of oil imports.</div><div><br /></div><div><u>Transport - The Elephant in the room accounts for 85%+ of India's Oil imports</u></div><div><br /></div><div>That's the key. Road transportation. </div><div><br /></div><div>Today the largely noted alternative to oil usage is EV adoption. That's not a bad alternative. City transportation where range anxiety is not an issue can be addressed with EV vehicles.</div><div><br /></div><div>The issue again becomes that of charging the EVs. Today many of my friends are buying EV cars and charging the vehicles from the grid (at their homes or offices). </div><div><br /></div><div>It is no surprise that our coal/gas powered generation units (read again that 60%+ of power generation happens through fossil fuels) are transported through leaky distribution networks (with 20%+ leakage in distribution) further weakening the already suspect grid through the massive consumption posed by EVs!</div><div><br /></div><div>The only way to counter that is through super sweetened net energy metering programs (government funded) for residential rooftop solar PV adoption. This, along with home energy storage (lithium-ion-based systems with at least 10+ year life, 4000+ cycles are much needed.</div><div><br /></div><div>Storage systems that are lithium-based will have two issues:</div><div><br /></div><div>(a) sourcing of lithium on large scale (that is low-cost, sustainable, and environmentally friendly)</div><div>(b) re-use or disposal of used batteries</div><div><br /></div><div>Today, China controls most of the battery cell market and indirectly the lithium production. Three countries - Chile, Australia, and China account for 98%+ of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium" target="_blank">Lithium</a> production. </div><div><br /></div><div>White gold (as it will soon be known) exploration is widely conducted in many countries. It is expected that Russia, Argentina, and other South American countries will likely hold the majority of lithium deposits.</div><div><br /></div><div>The more I think about this, adopting large-scale EVs might lead eventually to replacing oil imports with lithium imports! These are large-scale future second and third-order impacts. I am no expert - but, this does not look sustainable unless we find large local reserves or come up with alternate storage technologies (both seem far-fetched today).</div><div><br /></div><div>We may replace our Middle east dependence (Oil) with China's dependence (Lithium). We'll likely move from multi-sourced procurement to single-source procurement. That might not work out well. Alternatively, India must already make heavy commitments (buy mining rights) in countries like Chile, Argentina, Russia, Afghanistan, etc.</div><div><br /></div><div>Also, the disposal or reuse of lithium is a big question. Lithium is highly combustible. Unlike lead acid batteries, a lithium-based battery is not easily re-usable. Read this <a href="https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20220105-lithium-batteries-big-unanswered-question" rel="nofollow">article</a> to understand some problems associated with the disposal/re-use of batteries.</div><div><br /></div><div>Lithium batteries are extremely heavy. No doubt an EV car is super heavy today. A 100kWh battery-powered Tesla is basically transporting a large battery that's otherwise useless (but for its stored energy)! Gasoline is lightweight in comparison.</div><div><br /></div><div>Gasoline energy density is 47.5 MJ/kg (34.6 MJ/liter); the gasoline in a fully fueled car has the same energy content as a thousand sticks of dynamite. A lithium-ion battery pack has about 0.3 MJ/kg (0.4 MJ/liter. Gasoline thus has about 100 times the energy density of a lithium-ion battery! </div><div><br /></div><div>No doubt, oil has been powering cars for over a century because of its super high energy density! Human progress has been based on improving the key parameters in every sector. It's interesting that in Fuel-cell, we seem to be going backward.</div><div><br /></div><div>One should always understand that oil = fuel, lithium = storage. Lithium is not fuel. Fuel will be Solar PV / Fossil fuel / Hydroelectric generation. </div><div><br /></div><div><u>Hydrogen as fuel?</u></div><div><br /></div><div>Let us again look at the specific energy density. That is the key metric.</div><div><br /></div><div>Hydrogen has an energy density of 120 MJ/Kg i.e., ~3x gasoline. Of course, that's a no-brainer. The Japanese with their first hydrogen-powered Toyota's were always right in their argument!</div><div><br /></div><div>A single Kg of hydrogen roughly is equivalent to 33.6kWh or 1 gallon (around 3.7L) of diesel in terms of usable energy.</div><div><br /></div><div>The problem for Hydrogen has always been the extreme difficulty of producing and transporting that at prices that are less than that of diesel.</div><div><br /></div><div>I will not go into the full arguments about producing hydrogen that requires more energy today. Today's electrolyzers use about 50kWh of energy to produce 1Kg of Hydrogen. Note again, that 1Kg of hydrogen in terms of energy density is equivalent to around 33.6kWh (i.e., 3.7L of diesel).</div><div><br /></div><div>So, that was my argument that today - you are using more energy to just extract hydrogen and it's not sustainable! </div><div><br /></div><div>Also, transporting hydrogen in liquid form is difficult. It's like transporting more metal than hydrogen when transporting between fuel stations. Basically, the heavy pressurized metal container holding lightweight hydrogen gets transported in trucks. Transporting diesel by the way is super simple and easily done.</div><div><br /></div><div><u>What's different now? Why the hydrogen policy may have long-term implications?</u></div><div><br /></div><div>If local solar PV stations power small distributed hydrogen electrolyzer stations (that will also act as future fuel stations), that solves both generation and distribution problems! The generation will depend on Solar (abundantly available) and if they are distributed enough, they can also act as fuel stations! So, essentially grid power is not used in the generation process. That's the key. </div><div><br /></div><div>Or even if transportation is complicated, hydrogen can be produced very cheaply (since the raw material is water!) using large utility-scale solar farms. Getting to scale at a generation cost of less than $1 per Kg - will simply obliterate the case for EV cars or the current diesel cars/trucks. </div><div><br /></div><div>A barrel contains roughly 160L of oil. At $100/Barrel of oil, it translates to $0.625/L i.e., $100/160L which is equal to Rs. 50/L of diesel. Diesel that gets procured at Rs. 50/L in international markets gets sold at Rs. 90-100/L in our local retail outlets. </div><div><br /></div><div>At $1/Kg (Rs. 80/Kg) of Hydrogen, in specific energy density terms, you are getting energy equivalent to roughly 3.7L of diesel. So, essentially it's like producing 1L of diesel for Rs. 80/3.7 = Rs. 21/L. Even if international crude prices drop to $50/Barrel (i.e., Rs. 25/L), locally produced hydrogen will win hands down.</div><div><br /></div><div>This solves the oil problem. That, I think is a huge step. </div><div><br /></div><div>There need not be a single winning technology. But, I do believe that this decade will be the decline of oil as the primary fuel source!</div><div><br /></div><div>Hydrogen will find a place in the scheme of things. It's a busy place today with many technologies. There might not be a single winner here. Through this decade, we'll come to know how the story unfolds. </div><div><br /></div>Ciao till next time...Harsha</div>Harshahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07448174492659018046noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13272260.post-74805013198136159922022-07-08T08:24:00.002+02:002022-07-08T08:24:32.560+02:00To the Boring. The Consistent. The Relentless.<div>I decided I'll at least update my blog once every 2 weeks. More frequent if possible. I've noted time every Friday if something hits me to write.</div><div><br /></div><div>I really don't feel the need to write something thoughtful today.</div><div><br /></div><div>A commitment needs to be kept i.e., updating my blog in the 30 min window. I am somewhat flustered and would rather do other things than write today. I am too bored to be writing. </div><div><br /></div><div>Here's something I found on the internet today. I felt it had a nice ring to it. I agree with the author Jack on consistency, but consistency necessarily need not be boring. Writing is boring. I don't see any payoff in writing. But, then again, who knows! Someday someone might read this. </div><div><br /></div><div>They might feel it helped. So, here goes this quote that provoked some thought today. </div><div><br /></div><div><div><i>"It doesn't matter if you are a weightlifter, writer, hedge fund manager, programmer, or musician. Your success, or lack thereof, will be determined by your ability to do ordinary things for extraordinary lengths of time.</i></div><div><i><br /></i></div><div><i>Do some boring stuff, adapt that boring stuff, and don't stop doing the boring stuff. If you can do the boring stuff longer than everyone else, you will probably achieve some not-so-boring results.</i></div><div><i><br /></i></div><div><i>- Jack"</i></div></div><div><br /></div><div>I do like the ring of consistency for long periods paying off. I am a believer in that. </div><div><br /></div>Ciao till next time...HarshaHarshahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07448174492659018046noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13272260.post-10500338984166142212022-07-01T07:55:00.004+02:002022-07-01T13:53:25.514+02:00Continuous Education: A Point of View and a Thank-you! Note<div>A friend of mine recently joined an Education start-up, he sees huge growth there. He's got a healthy stock package (I felt it was over-valued). Anyway, today, most Edu-start-ups are high flyers. Who's to argue with him!</div><div><br /></div><div>Another friend sends his kids to a high-cost online tutorial.. after all, who would want to penny-pinch for education, right? He made a point that he will spend all that he can, to get his kids the best education there is.</div><div><br /></div><div>It made me think. I was not sure if I had to write about it. But, then again, I felt I should pay my thanks to two teachers who thought me a lot. For free. No noise, no fees.</div><div><br /></div><div>Well, read more to find out.</div><div><br /></div><div>Now, let me come back to my story. </div><div><br /></div><div>Mentally, yesterday, I got transported to around 2012 when I was seriously considering whether I do a second MBA - Stanford or INSEAD (1 year MBA which they offer). That's exactly 10 years back!</div><div><br /></div><div>I was in Germany working then and I started seeing some of my Indian friends do a second foreign MBA. Mostly, they were unhappy that they did not get a globally recognized name tag like an <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Institutes_of_Management" target="_blank">IIM </a>when they did an MBA at <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Institute_of_Industrial_Engineering" target="_blank">NITIE</a>. </div><div><br /></div><div>A NITIE MBA was cheap. I spent around Rs. 2L (~$4000 then), of which I majorly recovered the cost by winning B-School case study competitions that offered handsome cash prizes over the 2 years. I had no major loans when I came out unlike some of my counterparts from other B-Schools when I joined the workforce. </div><div><br /></div><div>A marquee MBA is not a bad thing. I pondered if that will help me. I called my former manager who I admired, who had also taken a similar path by getting a 1 year MBA at Stanford. </div><div><br /></div><div>He was at best 50-50. His thoughts were neither for nor against doing a second MBA. I came out more confused after speaking with him. I thought he could give me a clear yes or no answer.</div><div><br /></div><div>Most things in life don't have a simple yes or no. Now, that's entering the real world. Bummer...</div><div><br /></div><div>That's when I was somewhat unclear on what path I foresaw my career growth, over the next decade.</div><div><br /></div><div>My motto at that time was - "I am on the highway, and I love driving"! I literally had that piece framed on my office desk in Munich. I was traveling to customers every day. Meeting companies, trying to grow Cypress's business. That was super fun. I loved it.</div><div><br /></div><div>Well, on the other hand - I had saved up enough to get a 1-year INSEAD MBA without loans. It was in France after all. Not a bad idea to just remain in Europe, and get an MBA when I am there. On the other hand, when I looked at their average salary post MBA - I felt that was lower than what I was making already.</div><div><br /></div><div>Anyway, what I realized is, that I had some time on my hands when I was traveling. I felt I was not learning anything. Seeing people go back to do an MBA made me think about that.</div><div><br /></div><div>Somewhere in the back of my mind, I felt - somewhere down the lane, I wanted to learn more about finance. NITIE unfortunately did not offer the best of the teachers. It was not known for Finance. </div><div><br /></div><div>I was 30, and I decided I might not want to work at all, by the time I was 40. So, spending a year on MBA was not really worth it. I just loved to invest and pulling money out for an MBA was not something I wanted to do.</div><div><br /></div><div>So, that gave me an answer on the MBA part. Now, I got looking at how to go about learning Finance - portfolio management, security analysis, and valuing companies. </div><div><br /></div><div>Of course, I googled it. I bought a few books. Also, I religiously downloaded Buffett's annual letters. Read them all that year. </div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>Enter Gurus: Prof Aswath Damodaran and Prof. Sanjay Bakshi</u></b></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCRZz2S2cB64MkSZ0YXVY1qq5xMewDUYe4MVAyaavc5OrjuAv6qcxxHvJWvOt8dPWyvT8qD33ija76o0psb3yuR_ZtmCJMs86zLNo12TavgEIeg-5P32m0Jiog1NxkBJB8TN2gN_WnhCbh5b2-rP9V-zIl8GaJj9hNtUTSD4Dmn0Ol9jOTng/s1345/profs.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="476" data-original-width="1345" height="141" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCRZz2S2cB64MkSZ0YXVY1qq5xMewDUYe4MVAyaavc5OrjuAv6qcxxHvJWvOt8dPWyvT8qD33ija76o0psb3yuR_ZtmCJMs86zLNo12TavgEIeg-5P32m0Jiog1NxkBJB8TN2gN_WnhCbh5b2-rP9V-zIl8GaJj9hNtUTSD4Dmn0Ol9jOTng/w400-h141/profs.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><div>There appeared to be two names that always popped up when I searched on these topics. Prof <a href="https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/" target="_blank">Aswath Damodaran</a> of NYU Stern and Prof. <a href="https://www.sanjaybakshi.net/" target="_blank">Sanjay Bakshi </a>of MDI, Gurgaon. </div><div><br /></div><div>The greatness of these two gentlemen was that their teachings were all there on their websites! All their class notes, lecture notes, and even the question papers were uploaded on their websites. </div><div><br /></div><div>Having a mentor is great when you are on the path of self-education. Having two is even better!</div><div><br /></div><div>Years 2012, and 2013 on and off were spent heavily doing every single case study, and question paper and reading through their courses - <a href="https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/webcasteqspr19.htm" target="_blank">Valuation</a>, <a href="https://execed.stern.nyu.edu/pages/online-courses" target="_blank">Corporate Finance</a> (Damodaran), and <a href="https://www.sanjaybakshi.net/bfbv-v12/" target="_blank">Behavioral Finance and Business Valuation</a> (Bakshi).</div><div><br /></div><div>You see, I was working, so most of my learning was slow. You could ask - how I took 2 years doing a few courses. But, then again I was not in a race. I thought I was giving myself 1 hr here or there to do this reading. I was also reading a bunch of letters/memos from hedge fund managers, investment partnerships, etc (which I continue to read even today).</div><div><br /></div><div>The basic foundation I received from both these professors is something I would be forever grateful for. I tried emailing and providing my answers to the professors once (for their question papers/case studies), but I never got an answer - I realized that the courses were a year old, so my answers were probably a year old. So, I stopped doing that. But, who cares, if I got graded or not! </div><div><br /></div><div><div>Around the same time, I did get an executive management program at Santa Clara as part of Cypress's CYPA. But, that helped mostly to meet and know people. </div><div><br /></div></div><div>Also, later in California, it was great to take courses on and off at <a href="https://continuingstudies.stanford.edu/" target="_blank">Stanford Continuing Studies</a> (also sponsored by Cypress - could that get better!). Now more recently - I've taken <a href="https://www.nism.ac.in/" target="_blank">NISM Courses</a> and now enrolled for a <a href="https://www.cfainstitute.org/en/programs/cfa/" target="_blank">CFA</a> this year (kinda late - doing that mid-life you'd say!... but, who cares? I am in no race).</div><div><br /></div><div>Continuous education is very important. To be a lifelong student is one of the joys of life!</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>In Summary</u></b></div><div><br /></div><div>I know, I am meandering. Let me come back. </div><div><br /></div><div>I felt I have to write a blog post to thank both Prof Damodaran and Prof Bakshi for their generosity. Their courses are fundamentally the building blocks for anything I've learned in security analysis. </div><div><br /></div><div>I have sent them my own annual letters - on my investments which I started writing ever since 2016. I have got a warm short reply sometimes. </div><div><br /></div><div>I have got a world-class securities valuation education from these two gentlemen for no money at all. They've never looked at monetizing their courses. Courses are even today available on their websites (I've linked the latest classes above). </div><div><br /></div><div>Here's just a note to thank you. That $100K saved then on a second MBA is worth far more than $1M today.</div><div><br /></div><div>Professors, If ever, we meet in person - I would love to thank you in person. Your work has helped one individual (me:-)) to learn. That individual is very grateful for your efforts.</div><div><br /></div>Ciao till next time...HarshaHarshahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07448174492659018046noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13272260.post-56064213473258957642022-06-22T12:40:00.003+02:002022-06-22T12:51:28.525+02:00Investing Errors - Inability to Gauge Margin of Safety<div>2020 was a great time to invest. All that I touched, turned to gold and there seems to be a touch of hubris that affected me post that. People panic all the time. Somehow, I thought that Covid was a virus after all and was crazy enough to be in good equities and bought more exhausting all my liquidity. </div><div><br /></div><div>That was a great year. But, then again, buying in 2020 is not a skill. It is purely buying at the right time. It is luck. </div><div><br /></div><div>I think I mistook that for skill. I was wrong.</div><div><br /></div><div>Many of the stocks I touched in 2021 are trading at lower prices in 2022. At least till now. I deeply looked at each one of my mistakes. Most of my picks don't have anything bad in their fundamentals. But, I have been woefully wrong in gauging their strengths. Overpaying for them.</div><div><br /></div><div>Most company strengths are based not just on the skills of the management, the market they play in, competitive strengths, or their past successes but driven in part by external factors. That they play in friendly playgrounds. A lot of factors help their growth: Government support, Liquidity (a rising tide lifts all boats), Lure of a recovery spurring short-term demand (and then, you consider that as a given for a number of years ahead), and Low-interest rate environment continuing, etc...</div><div><br /></div><div>These, and many more, are errors I fell prey to in 2021. I wish I had been more careful. But, I cannot go back to change what has happened. Not jumped into buying. Waited.</div><div><br /></div><div>I recently read a wonderful book written by Adam Mead - The Complete Financial History of Berkshire Hathaway. Adam analyses basically everything Buffett did at Berkshire for the past 55 years. And even a historical perspective of Berkshire right from the 1930s. </div><div><br /></div><div>I think he wrote it for Buffett aficionados. It's a rather dry, long, rambling book, but I rather enjoyed it. I re-read the lines I marked out and cross-referenced Buffett's biggest successes and failures and some patterns which led to them being successes or failures.</div><div><br /></div><div>One thing that clearly strikes me is the unwavering discipline that was maintained by Buffett in any of his buys. The clarity of thought of understanding the downsides more than the upside is very clear in all his successes. </div><div><br /></div><div>Where he missed analyzing the downsides/risks (Dexter shoes with Chinese competition, Gen Re with its derivative book, IBM with tech obsolescence and changing direction), etc. are clearly the ones where he missed something vital in analyzing the ecosystem. And hence he overpaid. </div><div><br /></div><div>If I have to point out what I did not do well in 2021, it is summarized by three words: "<u>Margin Of Safety</u>". I basically failed in looking for risks that warranted an extra margin of safety.</div><div><br /></div><div>Buffett bought Gen Re in the late 1990s and it took a long time for him to set that business on the path to success. </div><div><br /></div><div>In doing so, he talks about the characteristics of a sound insurance operation (<i>quoted from page 546, footnote 2 of Adam's book</i>):</div><div><br /></div><div><i><b>1) An understanding of all exposures that might cause a policy to incur losses;</b></i></div><div><i><b>2) A conservative evaluation of the likelihood of any exposure actually causing a loss and the probable cost if it does; </b></i></div><div><i><b>3) The setting of a premium that will deliver a profit, on average, after both prospective loss costs and operating expenses are covered; and</b></i></div><div><i><b>4) The willingness to walk away if the appropriate premium can't be obtained.</b></i></div><div><br /></div><div>These principles apply not just to insurance companies, but to all companies in general. All you need to do is, replace some of the specific terms he has used with more generic terms.</div><div><br /></div><div>I put my guard down in buying some (good) companies at prices that were not discounting all the potential and probable risks. I am paying the price for that error. </div><div><br /></div><div><b><i>Here is an old Graham quote that is so apt:</i></b></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgd1DrxkxZxvi8MaWVqCWnM0ik6RhJyb7aMQ0JUMnJBN3hAaf1-4Pg0r2ItLw54aYxW7fPs3BtsJ87wy6FTDSTq3jdK7UgJdU8TwRcM5C3JqZj45xq6KnNAZfS48W43kH3L4-6i-Ic7LH1dgk33VTPBQqyTlPt9kaShugt261Oj4c9zzZ2f_A/s850/margin%20of%20safety.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="400" data-original-width="850" height="189" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgd1DrxkxZxvi8MaWVqCWnM0ik6RhJyb7aMQ0JUMnJBN3hAaf1-4Pg0r2ItLw54aYxW7fPs3BtsJ87wy6FTDSTq3jdK7UgJdU8TwRcM5C3JqZj45xq6KnNAZfS48W43kH3L4-6i-Ic7LH1dgk33VTPBQqyTlPt9kaShugt261Oj4c9zzZ2f_A/w400-h189/margin%20of%20safety.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>The problem overlooking the margin of safety is: that you'll have to wait much longer for recovery. You have to go through the pain. There are no shortcuts. </div><div><br /></div><div>There is no place for hubris in investing. You cannot correct mistakes already committed. Sometimes, if the money supply is plentiful, liquidity + low-interest-rate environment hides many of these errors. I reflected on that in my last post - <a href="http://harshav.blogspot.com/2022/05/gravity-and-oxygen-makes-all-difference.html" target="_blank">Gravity and Oxygen: Makes all the difference</a>.</div><div><br /></div><div>Even if you buy good companies at prices that do not discount all risks - it is a bad buy. I hope that I never make this mistake knowingly again.</div><div><br /></div>Ciao till next time...HarshaHarshahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07448174492659018046noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13272260.post-869235154164696222022-05-13T06:55:00.005+02:002022-05-13T13:30:34.479+02:00Gravity and Oxygen: Makes all the difference<div>I remember that in school, when we went to the local science museum, there was a machine that calculated our weight on the Moon, Mars, and many other planets.</div><div><br /></div><div>It was fascinating to see that our weights differ! I still remember that our weight on the Moon was 16.5% of what we weigh on Earth. </div><div><br /></div><div>Someone who weighs 100Kgs is only 16.5Kgs on the Moon :-) That was a very interesting titbit. It still psyches me though... The concept of gravity. How gravity is different on different planets, and so our weights change based on that.</div><div><br /></div><div>We were taught of Earth as the "Goldilocks" planet as it had a stable atmosphere, viable oxygen supply, the right amount of sunlight, and water for the sustenance of organisms. </div><div><br /></div><div>That, we were told, was why we could only live on Earth and not Mars...or anywhere else.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEginPGxKEgGXYhuOeOIqLx9--qaz2MnYxX4YtLzv_v76b2NlaEUNVUfZrO-CETcomrvfYt-MeH1VjY8nou79TLdjTZCroSFzGfUh06xp1WfVosWIP8taf0CRgwQWWkfQ4rZq6getG_5sWtpE5lG2l8hAHJNz6D1abYlTkvr5gbwAnltoNjX8Q/s907/habzone.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="510" data-original-width="907" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEginPGxKEgGXYhuOeOIqLx9--qaz2MnYxX4YtLzv_v76b2NlaEUNVUfZrO-CETcomrvfYt-MeH1VjY8nou79TLdjTZCroSFzGfUh06xp1WfVosWIP8taf0CRgwQWWkfQ4rZq6getG_5sWtpE5lG2l8hAHJNz6D1abYlTkvr5gbwAnltoNjX8Q/w400-h225/habzone.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><i><b>Well, now, let's take that analogy and move into the stock market:</b></i></div><div><br /></div><div>We are seeing a sudden fall in the stock markets - lots of reasons, some relevant, some not so relevant. </div><div><br /></div><div>Quite a few stocks have corrected in the last few days. Certain themes have taken a tumble of 5-10% in this week alone. </div><div><br /></div><div>A lot of story stocks were trading at 100x P/E and some even more when there are no earnings, but only projected earnings... </div><div><br /></div><div>100x P/E means you are extremely sure of earnings growing rapidly for many many years ahead and are supremely confident of the quantum and trajectory of growth... I've always wondered how you can be sure of something 20 years down the line when you are unsure of what happens a week or two from now. </div><div><br /></div><div>People change, companies change, directions change, and all sorts of things can happen. How can someone be so sure. Where is the margin of safety??</div><div><br /></div><div>Anyway, I'm digressing.</div><div><br /></div><div>At the end of the day, the way you value a business is by estimating the future cash flows it would produce, and discounting it back to today.</div><div><br /></div><div>Essentially, we are looking at two variables - </div><div><br /></div><div>(a) What the asset would produce yearly -- Cash flows</div><div><br /></div><div>(b) What is the rate at which the cash flows get discounted -- Interest rate</div><div><br /></div><div>With feds and central banks finally looking at curtailing inflation, rate hikes have come in. With (b) going up, the value of assets needs to come down. Interest rates are like gravity. Higher the rates, lower the asset value...</div><div><br /></div><div>You see, gravity brings down the weight?</div><div><br /></div><div>Though it is to be expected, it is always the lack of visibility of earnings, extra caution creeping in, and a sense of the unknown which causes liquidity to disappear, leading to prices falling indifferently.</div><div><br /></div><div>Who knows how to perfectly value future cash flows...</div><div><br /></div><div>Anyway, nobody knows how much something falls. The future is always uncertain. </div><div><br /></div><div>But, as we're taught in school... Oxygen does make all the difference for sustenance. Oxygen typically in the world of stocks is the availability of easy money. </div><div><br /></div><div>Nobody thinks of oxygen, but it makes all the difference when it is not present. It is the same as liquidity to the market. Nobody cares about liquidity as long as it is abundantly available.</div><div><br /></div><div>When liquidity tightens, uncertainty gets heightened due to a sense of pessimism. One becomes less certain of future cash flows. </div><div><br /></div><div>That is our problem today. Both these together create issues. Uncertainty creates doubts. </div><div><br /></div><div>We start looking at everything during times of uncertainty. Government policy (China-US), Oil price, Covid (still?), and Ukraine-Russia issues (last I checked, they were <2% of world GDP) among others. </div><div><br /></div><div>All of these do cause uncertainty. Some of the factors are more relevant - Oil prices for example, which a country like India is heavily dependent on; more than others...</div><div><br /></div><div>But, all of these affect the way we perceive the future unfolding and with it, the movement of interest rates, and the certainty of future cash flows.</div><div><br /></div><div><b><i>What can we do?</i></b></div><div><br /></div><div>We humans always love to hear a story. Who doesn't like a story with that fantastic twist at the end? Something that will change the world.</div><div><br /></div><div>I certainly do like a good story. And so do you. But, we also know that change and growth are usually slow. There are always bumps on the road. </div><div><br /></div><div>It is better to look at realistic storylines of companies as the future always holds a range of possibilities. It is better to stick with a future that is conservative, but directionally positive. Something that might not change the world today or tomorrow - but, over long periods, will lead to a massive difference.</div><div><br /></div><div><b><i>What am I doing?</i></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Usually, when I have made a good purchase, I just don't want to do anything. Most of my errors have been in doing something - typically selling early. Notional price movements should not always dictate actions. <a href="http://harshav.blogspot.com/2016/12/the-do-nothing-strategy.html" target="_blank">Sometimes, not doing something stupid is better than doing anything at all</a>.</div><div><br /></div><div>Again, Earth is a Goldilocks planet due to a combination of factors. Of course, Gravity and Oxygen are key ones, but many others are needed like the right amount of water, sunlight, environment, atmosphere, etc, etc. </div><div><br /></div><div>Many a time, stock portfolio construction is also a work of art. This needs to have the right amount of <a href="http://harshav.blogspot.com/2020/01/balance-order-and-harmony-work-of-art.html" target="_blank">order and balance</a>. </div><div><br /></div><div>Deploying extra cash I have, sitting quietly and deeply looking at any potential themes, and not unduly changing anything... is what I am trying to do.</div><div><br /></div><div>Well, here is an old clip of Buffett that seems to so succinctly summarize the situation:</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/W4AIul7_9o8" width="320" youtube-src-id="W4AIul7_9o8"></iframe></div><br /><div><br /></div>Ciao till next time...HarshaHarshahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07448174492659018046noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13272260.post-3919344685084907452022-05-06T06:33:00.002+02:002022-05-10T05:22:23.032+02:00Magic: Compounding Over Long Periods<div>My son and I were reading the newspaper earlier today. He is 10 years old. An article piqued his interest - Elon Musk taking over Twitter and how he is shelling out $40B+. He knows that Elon Musk is the richest man today with ~$250B. </div><div><br /></div><div>He seems more interested in finding a way to make money himself. Here was our conversation:</div><div><br /></div><div>Son: How much is a $1B? </div><div>Me: It's roughly Rs. 7,500 Crore</div><div><br /></div><div>Son: Well, I'll start a company and will make more</div><div>Me: OK, good. Get working</div><div><br /></div><div>Son: Anyway, how much will my piggy bank grow if I keep investing that?</div><div>Me: Let's calculate. How many years do you think you'll live and what interest rate will you grow your money at...?</div><div><br /></div><div>Background: He's seen the simple compound interest calculator, and he's played around with me. His piggy bank is fully invested in stocks which he picks with me. He seems to like valuing companies we come across.</div><div><br /></div><div>Son: 90 years (80 years ahead of him), 20% every year</div><div>Me: Yes, you'll get to a $1B+ with what you have, if you grow that without touching it (I'm leaving out the exact $B)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVIYwYBBCDVlknjyi-BpVXTuhFNR8se_ikt5v__adN96GiHLG-r_OnkzRqRmR0kA01YCYWizkfiYuK8yARfTDFGDehHcxHg5WzBDOY6RarFVRjy4IE91Ocp-z7XIDcq7nrmj9snU8qNSifiq8S76KdOI_yfcP8BGgq5KUDPZQCOZYfzI8wbQ/s1378/Power%20of%20Compounding.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1022" data-original-width="1378" height="296" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVIYwYBBCDVlknjyi-BpVXTuhFNR8se_ikt5v__adN96GiHLG-r_OnkzRqRmR0kA01YCYWizkfiYuK8yARfTDFGDehHcxHg5WzBDOY6RarFVRjy4IE91Ocp-z7XIDcq7nrmj9snU8qNSifiq8S76KdOI_yfcP8BGgq5KUDPZQCOZYfzI8wbQ/w400-h296/Power%20of%20Compounding.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><div>Son's not too happy having that when he's 90 years. We'll see what he does to get there sooner.</div><div><br /></div><div>It's magical to see how money snowballs. He seems to get the concept. Now, let's see if he can really grow that at 20% YoY and if he does not lick into the honey pot.</div><div><br /></div><div>That's for time to tell. </div><div><br /></div>Ciao till next time...HarshaHarshahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07448174492659018046noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13272260.post-52769239916548990622022-04-26T06:48:00.000+02:002022-04-26T06:48:16.479+02:00Exponential Growth: A Curious Case<div>I hate popping pills. Especially if something needs to be taken regularly. All sorts of pills have taken a foothold into our lives. Pills for blood pressure, diabetes, fat burn, protein supplements, and so on and so forth. It is like someone controlling our lives, and you can do nothing about it.</div><div><br /></div><div>A magic pill that can cure anything is just what we are looking for. Though I hate pills, I love the pharma business. It is here to stay, and it is here to grow. Exponentially.</div><div><br /></div><div><i><b>Here is a curious case of the Dolo-650</b></i></div><div><br /></div><div>The one magic pill for fever, body aches, general weakness, or anything which causes you discomfort, is not there. </div><div><br /></div><div>But the belief is: if you're not really sure of what caused it.... take a Dolo! It might just help you. </div><div><br /></div><div>Or so, some of us believe. Yours truly included. I've popped a Dolo in the past year like so many others.</div><div><br /></div><div>With Covid raging, the only over-the-counter drug that seemed always available, readily trusted, and used was Dolo. I was surprised how it became a household name in India.</div><div><br /></div><div>I tried purchasing generic paracetamol when my mother was having a bout of Covid in 2020. I was told to only trust the one highly effective paracetamol, by the local pharmacist - "Dolo". </div><div><br /></div><div>When you need medicines for your family, you don't typically bargain on price, you go by what works. </div><div><br /></div><div>If the guy selling medicines says it works, you tend to believe him and pay a premium (50% more than the generic 500 mg Paracetamol).</div><div><br /></div><div>I decided to dig a little deeper after the incident. It turned out to be a very interesting case indeed. I wanted to write on this topic since last year but kept putting it off. Well.. I've got to write it now. </div><div><br /></div><div>I recently read an article on Micro Labs in Fortune and it triggered back what I had researched myself.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhixQJaDAd7RuBY-8RaHJYKgcs0HZaEh9JzgTdodfp_vkO__OO2L25IWgNGB75O9RiAmk3cAIArbbaflGNwkaJv-upiuGRrxftbSvlRUvSztdXIWcqly3CzP2npXgTksd-xksm1wocBk6xoLcK3qyHUikH8vhg2-oZf_GYYidmCktX728wQJA/s500/paracetamol-dolo-650-500x500.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="326" data-original-width="500" height="261" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhixQJaDAd7RuBY-8RaHJYKgcs0HZaEh9JzgTdodfp_vkO__OO2L25IWgNGB75O9RiAmk3cAIArbbaflGNwkaJv-upiuGRrxftbSvlRUvSztdXIWcqly3CzP2npXgTksd-xksm1wocBk6xoLcK3qyHUikH8vhg2-oZf_GYYidmCktX728wQJA/w400-h261/paracetamol-dolo-650-500x500.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><div><a href="http://www.microlabsltd.com/" target="_blank">Micro Labs</a> (a privately held company based in Bangalore), was one of the many manufacturers of the common paracetamol. Their foray seemed quite unspectacular until the mid-90s. They were one of the many paracetamol manufacturers in the already crowded space.</div><div><br /></div><div>Their "Aha!" moment came up when they differentiated their product by introducing a rather queer product size. The 650 mg Paracetamol product, christened "Dolo-650".</div><div><br /></div><div>All Paracetamol products were sold in the standard 500 mg packaging. </div><div><br /></div><div>The brilliant idea of a 650 mg dosage was the result of focusing on the small set of people who really needed to take a dose of paracetamol due to high fever! </div><div><br /></div><div>Most people with light fever tried not to take pills. High fever warranted a higher dosage, and an extra 150 mg really helped!</div><div><i><b><br /></b></i></div><div><i><b>Anyway, where is the growth?</b></i></div><div><br /></div><div>Though Dolo was an effective fever reducer, it was a fairly steady product that sold a million strips (of 10 tablets) every year until 2019 for the Suranas (the family that owned Micro Labs).</div><div><br /></div><div>All that changed, when Covid hit. I read estimates that they sold 3.5 Billion pills during Covid and are growing rapidly in high double digits YoY since.</div><div><br /></div><div>They seemed to have now cornered a crowded generic paracetamol market with a slightly differentiated, modestly innovative product. </div><div><br /></div><div>Dolo is no longer a paracetamol 650 mg pill, it has got a brand of its own.</div><div><br /></div><div>Paracetamol in India is now called "Dolo". This seems like the Xerox moment for them. A photocopier even today is called a Xerox machine. </div><div><br /></div><div>What got me really interested, is the philosophy of the Surana family (Dilip Surana) in a recent interview which I want to summarize here:</div><div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Differentiation and branding (in this case, with medical advisors and doctors)</li><li>Consistent quality</li><li>Consistent messaging</li></ul></div><div>Nobody can predict when exponential growth can hit in, but it was interesting to see a small domestic manufacturer corner a commodity market in the face of strong overseas competition (GSK) which had 10X more firepower.</div><div><br /></div><div>Indian Pharma is ripe for more 10X's - I wonder who is next? The search will always continue. </div><div><br /></div><div>I just wanted to stop by, and tell you the unexplained story of "Dolo", the magic pill!</div><div><br /></div>Ciao till next time...HarshaHarshahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07448174492659018046noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13272260.post-85758937292366731032021-08-19T11:03:00.004+02:002021-08-19T11:06:08.736+02:00Afghanistan - Winds of change?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSe13jJ9v2wqqdJwXUNzWpQE5lR381Kzo7-gm3BflAhtDmTG2peMBsuLSl8wEIOjecXcECvj87Tu-u8SShN7CjDz1rFEvUF9Iu3rQ9FuRCw88GwxnnbHenMGDSOKnQHfYVxdgV/s960/afganistan-04-buddha.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="540" data-original-width="960" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSe13jJ9v2wqqdJwXUNzWpQE5lR381Kzo7-gm3BflAhtDmTG2peMBsuLSl8wEIOjecXcECvj87Tu-u8SShN7CjDz1rFEvUF9Iu3rQ9FuRCw88GwxnnbHenMGDSOKnQHfYVxdgV/w400-h225/afganistan-04-buddha.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div>I started reading about Afghanistan in 2001. I think most of us did not know much about them before 2001. And, after that - many of us have come to associate one of these names when it comes to that country - "Taliban", "Al-Qaida", "Osama", "Islamic State", "Bamiyan", "9/11 sponsors", etc among others..</div><div><br /></div><div>Not any of them denote positivity. I want to just pen down my thoughts about how the world is changing and how Afghanistan might be the turning point in Geo-Politics.. Let's get started..</div><div><br /></div><div><u>Down the memory-lane..</u></div><div><br /></div><div>If you go back many centuries, Afghanistan was a key central region at cross roads of the fabled silk road. Roughly 30% of the world trade happened on the silk road. It formed sort of the gateway into both India and China from the West. Any European trade had to cross this part of the world. Over the centuries, this region has seen its ups and downs. The only other equally important trading junction was - Israel; at the confluence of three continents - Asia, Africa and Europe. </div><div><br /></div><div>Anyway, in short, the Afghans of those times were Businessmen. Let's look through the ages...</div><div><br /></div><div><u>Pre-Islamic Era:</u></div><div><br /></div><div>Let's head back roughly 1500 years. </div><div><br /></div><div>I was reading the translated accounts of the traveler, <a href="https://biography.yourdictionary.com/hsuan-tsang" target="_blank">Hsuan Tsang</a> (the Chinese Buddhist monk) who spent close to 2 decades traveling into India to collect the Buddhist scriptures from the ancient Indian kingdom ruled by king - Harshavardhan. </div><div><br /></div><div>The year was 630 AD when Tsang supposedly entered the kingdom of Bactria-Samarkhand (times when the Indian kings still ruled the place). The place was bustling with activity and he describes this part of the world as: "<em style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; color: #404040; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">This is a rich land, where the treasures of distant countries accumulate, where there are powerful horses and skilled artisans, and the climate is most pleasant</span></em>". </div><div><br /></div><div>Supposedly, just like tourist attractions of the current times, religious monuments attracted tourists during those times - so, lo and behold, the wily Afghans had build their own state of the art Bamiyan Buddha as their tourism mainstay. For centuries, the region was a bustling economic hub, tourism hotspot!</div><div><br /></div><div>Supposedly the Buddhas of Bamiyan were a flourishing pilgrimage during those peaceful times. The silk road was not too harsh to travel and it had brought prosperity to all the lands between Europe and China. This part of the world seemed to be at the cutting edge of technology - the first high speed cross-asian postal network, canal systems (which were still running from the Greek times of the old kingdom of Bactria and Samarkhand), top-of-the line orchard farming techniques (Citrus farming was somewhat of their monopoly)..etc..</div><div><br /></div><div>I am digressing.. let's move forward fast.</div><div><br /></div><div><u>The Islamic Ages:</u></div><div><br /></div><div>The region saw Islamic conquests after Tsang's visits and subsequent capture - the Abbasid's during 800 AD and post a small relapse (when the Hindu kings recaptured the area), Muslim rulers from Samanid's onwards have had the area under their tight grasp.. </div><div><br /></div><div>However, even during these times - The Bamiyan had supposedly thwarted attackers like - Genghis (1200's), Babur (1500's) and Aurangzeb (1800's). </div><div><br /></div><div>Post the 1500's - the importance of the region had anyway fallen.. mainly due to the greed of the later rulers charging hefty fees for the usage of the silk road (by the many mini-states of the middle east)... </div><div><br /></div><div>The Europeans felt that it was much better spending money on exploration in the 1400's to find a safer sea route to India. By the time of 1600 AD, the region had lost out to the cheaper, more safer (from attackers) and easier (no hassle of middle men) sea routes... That supposedly put an end to the prosperity to the land. Alternate sources of revenue - farming, mining, etc never really took off due to the apathy of the rulers...</div><div><br /></div><div>Moving fast ahead into the 20th century.., lack of education, lack of opportunities, hardships, feudal farming system, among other things, lead people to bend more towards extremism. </div><div><br /></div><div>The feeling that somehow God will intervene when things go wrong, leads people to look more towards God-men than Good-men. </div><div><br /></div><div>Taliban (Religious students) captured most of Afghanistan by the 1990's - it's ironic that the movement itself started as a student uprising against the warlord stooges of US and USSR!</div><div><br /></div><div><u>Post 2001:</u></div><div><br /></div><div>2001 was when most of the world stood up and took note of Taliban. What 1500 years of attacks could not accomplish, Taliban achieved the full destruction of Bamiyan Buddhas with the use of dynamite within weeks in March 2001. </div><div><br /></div><div>It is ironic that Mullah Omar, the then leader is supposed to have said - "<span style="background-color: white; color: #363636;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><i>If the statues were objects of cult for an Afghan minority, we would have to respect their belief and its objects, but we don’t have a single Buddhist in Afghanistan, so why preserve false idols? And if they have no religious character, why get so upset? It is just a question of breaking stones.</i></span></span>"</div><div><br /></div><div>The slick businessmen of Afghanistan of the 600 ADs would be turning in their graves looking at their descendants blow up their own cultural heritage. </div><div><br /></div><div>The 9/11 attacks of 2001 sealed the fate in one way for the Taliban. By the end of 2001, US and its allies had taken over Afghanistan and for the first time in decades, >50% of the population could breathe a sigh of relief (women and children)..</div><div><br /></div><div>I am no expert on Taliban or Afghanistan. How things have panned out post 2001 need to be told by someone in the region. What anyone writes, will always be reflective of what their biased views, opinions and world-views are..</div><div><br /></div><div>With a new centrist US backed regime coming in; much was expected. If anyone were to be asked in 2001 as to how they feel their country turns out in 20 years, most would have been super optimistic. They might have build castles in their dreams. In reality, nothing much seems to have changed.</div><div><br /></div><div><u>2021 and beyond:</u></div><div><br /></div><div>There are many questions which come to mind when looking at the way Taliban recaptured the country they lost 20 years back. </div><div><br /></div><div>It does not seem like they had to fire even a single bullet. Within a week of US leaving - they seem to have captured most of Afghanistan. How could that be even possible without massive local and international support...?</div><div><br /></div><div>To put that in perspective, the Olympics was held for a little over 2 weeks. Taliban were able to capture the whole of Afghanistan in less time than it took for the 2021 Olympics. </div><div><br /></div><div>Here are some questions that come to my mind:</div><div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Could the US not build a self sustaining rulership in 20 years? Was that not enough?</li><li>Where did the $90B/yr get spent? </li><li>Who has got the $2 Trillion (just to put that in perspective - its comparable to Apple, Amazon or Microsoft) that was spent by the US?</li><li>Are the taxpayers in the US not going to question where this money of theirs went? Down the sink hole?</li><li>Usually, money gets transferred from one to another. Was the US just bribing people, with massive corruption, where contractors, military agents, NGO's gobbled up trillions of dollars!?</li><li>Does this event signify end of the $ as a tool for diplomacy while RMB takes over? China seems to have increased their presence while US goes down</li><li>The Chinese media seem to have been rather quiet.. what's building up there? Has the CCP taken note of their new role?</li><li>Is this the inflection point where balance of power tilts firmly in favor of China?</li><li>It seems Taliban has already got their act together building fairly close economic ties with China, how will China react?</li></ul><div>What you and I see on TV might be just the tip of iceberg. The world seems to be changing fast. </div><div><br /></div><div>We may not be really seeing the reality. It does seem to me that this can end up as a wake up call to all of the world, that US is no longer the power it was. I fear this might end up hastening the removal of US as the dominant world player. </div><div><br /></div><div>I shudder to think what the second and third order effects of this are. The decade of 2020-30 is definitely going to throw up some Googlies! What implications does this massive debacle hide?</div></div><div><br /></div><div>It seems, nothing much has changed for Afghanistan in 20 years. But, a lot has changed for the world because of the US pull out....</div><div><br /></div>Ciao till next time...HarshaHarshahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07448174492659018046noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13272260.post-5766360389971040172021-05-12T05:09:00.007+02:002021-05-12T05:54:55.212+02:00A Reflection: Pause, Rewind and Reflect<div>Pause. Rewind. Reflect. The answer is always in front of us. As elusive as it seems, it is quite self evident. </div><div><br /></div><div>Man's problems as Blaise Pascal, the fresh philosopher said wonderfully "stems from his inability to sit quietly in a room alone".</div><div><br /></div><div>This is a short post. Here's an old favorite poem from W H Davies on Leisure. This so represents the need to stand, pause and understand that we are a small piece of puzzle. Nature has so many things to teach us.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDTVzYCWrS8M-_-ftLHs5eYklYSLKmn3DrBeTOLNod0QKkbYzwhGK7uZ5BkK3nM7wrH30vSmxk_Jr-rnZJ7B8rcfpYCcJ47sMaZhMbxoDH1CHBb5Hm8XTSHDr9N2Efn01eDm8o/s728/poem-leisure-10-728.jpeg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="546" data-original-width="728" height="402" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDTVzYCWrS8M-_-ftLHs5eYklYSLKmn3DrBeTOLNod0QKkbYzwhGK7uZ5BkK3nM7wrH30vSmxk_Jr-rnZJ7B8rcfpYCcJ47sMaZhMbxoDH1CHBb5Hm8XTSHDr9N2Efn01eDm8o/w535-h402/poem-leisure-10-728.jpeg" width="535" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>Ciao till next time...Harsha</div><br />Harshahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07448174492659018046noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13272260.post-16343880230100750942020-08-30T17:43:00.006+02:002021-09-03T11:48:51.775+02:00What a garden teaches you. And, the stories we tell ourselves.<div>This blog is vaguely divided into two parts. One on gardening. The other on stories we believe in. Both are relevant; as living through Covid-19, life has made me think about both. So, here goes..</div><div><br /></div><div>The recent Corona scare and ensuing lockdown has given me some much needed time to reflect and ponder. What am I doing, where am I heading, am I... doing the things that matter and, finally, am I doing them correctly.</div><div><br /></div><div>These and many more would come to mind when you are able to spend time with yourself. </div><div><br /></div><div>2000 yrs ago, Marcus Tullius Cicero said something which comes to mind - <i><b>"If you have a garden and a library, you have everything you need in life"</b></i>. Cicero was a champion of the Republic in the late Roman republic era 100BC. His works on philosophy, rhetoric and general cultural humanism rediscovered in the middle ages were one of the key ingredients for the Renaissance in Europe..</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglSvTGrgmfPzTFXyNQHzOCzcunxYiUqlXf24SzthOpqGryJbrWmNednaomd5W44eddVi5sDdkI6ziAsSbBcW0wDAYcSzqLdpmb7Uo22LU-EGVfG7aBs6JQPdsxflRuEGA4nt4U/s550/garden.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="550" data-original-width="550" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglSvTGrgmfPzTFXyNQHzOCzcunxYiUqlXf24SzthOpqGryJbrWmNednaomd5W44eddVi5sDdkI6ziAsSbBcW0wDAYcSzqLdpmb7Uo22LU-EGVfG7aBs6JQPdsxflRuEGA4nt4U/s0/garden.jpg" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><div>Since, we never really had a house which we could call our own... living in rented houses - I never really got the time and energy to grow a garden. I never had a way prove if Cicero was right. Two things changed that over the past year - 1) Buying a house 2) Getting the drive to do something useful.... especially, when you don't have anywhere to go through the week - for many, many weeks. Painful weekends with no activity.</div><div><br /></div><div>Yours truly can safely confirm, that, what Cicero said long ago is 100% true. A library was my prized possession - having always treasured the fact that learning.. is a lifelong pursuit. Garden, on the other hand - usually, was restricted to some potted plants in balcony (that typically, struggled for life... with limited sunlight, and as I realize now, some over-watering).</div><div><br /></div><div>Anyway, coming back to the Garden. Gardening is truly a pleasurable and a learning experience. Gardens are truly a representation of paradise on earth. Paradise, by the way, comes from the Persian word - "<i><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paradise_garden" target="_blank">Paradizia</a></i>", which essentially refers to the mythical walled garden during the classical, Achaemenid times. </div><div><br /></div><div>Here are my learnings from growing and maintaining a garden - </div><div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Sunlight, water and nutrition - are the three most important ingredients - 95% of the equation of life</li><li>There is magic in life - when you create the environment - all sorts of life comes in..</li><li>Beetles, song-birds, spiders, all sorts of insects and butterflies find their way - all they need is food to eat</li><li>We had song-birds - pair of nightingale, lay eggs in their nest in our garden.. what a beauty... A thing of beauty is, indeed, a joy forever</li><li>Opportunity and environment comes first. Performance comes with opportunity (that's a big lesson for me)</li><li>What you sow - is truly, what you reap.. effort comes before result. Always. 100%</li><li>Same plants can grow differently depending on what ingredients you provide - one can turn into a bonsai, and the other into a larger plant (I am trying my hand at creating bonsai's - if you want to learn - <a href="https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCOSyHATfjr6a0DkcCClt53g" target="_blank">Ayan's a great coach</a>)</li><li>Anyway, there are no shortcuts - if you plant fruit trees - they take a year to give first fruits. No way on earth - can they bloom faster.. just because... 'you' provide extra nutrition</li><li>There is no way around waiting. Once the environment is right, nutrition is right - you need tons of patience. Just because its your garden... the plants don't bloom faster</li></ul></div><div>Anyway, let me come back to the other theme I want to touch upon today. The last 6 months has busted some stories, which I think, we are used to. </div><div><br /></div><div>We tell a lot of stories to ourselves. We need $x million..., kids are costly..., social life is super critical..., Govt has the power.., authorities know better than common man (especially this is untrue..), remote work is not possible.., yadi yadi..</div><div><br /></div><div>Most things are untrue. Man is a very adjustable animal. Technology can change things very, very fast. Much more than we can imagine. Amazon can take over the whole of retail - hell, they just did. In 6 months. Boom.</div><div><br /></div><div>If its not for technology.. we are all monkeys playing around. Technology will change the world. Old business models need to give way to new. Moats can evaporate. Just like that. Be careful, what you think are the worst case situations, or the best case. Is it really that? </div><div><br /></div><div>Be careful of the stories we keep telling ourselves. Some learnings for life, living through Covid-19 times:</div><div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Most things, which we are used to collecting: hoarding money, things we need, etc are more than sufficient to lead a good life. We over-estimate what we need</li><li>5 pairs of clothes are more than sufficient. So, too with shoes</li><li>Home food is good. Eating at home, 7 days a week is totally fine...</li><li>Pareto rule - 80% of the things that matter, take up 20% of time.... is 100% true. It is important we do that 20% though</li><li>Kids don't need too many toys. They need our time</li><li><a href="http://harshav.blogspot.com/2017/07/clarity-understanding-what-you-do-not.html" target="_blank">Clarity</a> of mind is very important. Sometimes, work from home - becomes 90% work, 10% home. <a href="http://harshav.blogspot.com/2020/01/balance-order-and-harmony-work-of-art.html" target="_blank">Balance</a> is important, we need to find our balance</li><li>If you spend sometime on what you truly, truly want - world conspires to assist you</li><li>Helping others, gives you immense satisfaction - you have to try that often, very often</li></ul></div><div>I hope, you are encouraged to create your own garden. Always be clear of the stories you tell yourself. They are truly powerful, as mostly; we believe in them. What we truly believe - we have the power to make it happen.</div><div><br /></div>Ciao till next time...HarshaHarshahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07448174492659018046noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13272260.post-46257810809221911052020-01-25T16:58:00.001+01:002020-01-25T17:06:10.490+01:00Balance, Order and Harmony: A work of art, is joy forever!I am a big fan of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Don" target="_blank">Monty Don</a> - ever since I started watching his shows, I have been smitten by the gardening bug.<br />
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It's a great pleasure to walk in any of the great gardens and the palaces of Italy. I never could pin point what was that one thing which gave the gardens its character and panache. Walking around in some of the great gardens there... brought about a profound sense of peace and wonder.<br />
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Recently, I started creating a small garden on our terrace. I have been getting inspiration from some of Monty's Italian Garden's series.<br />
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Building a garden is like a work of art. Building anything in one's life that needs to sustain is a work of art. Like John Keats said, "a thing of beauty is a joy forever" - so too is your work of art..<br />
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Monty Don's Garden series takes you to a different world. I strongly encourage you to see the four part series from Monty on Italian gardens. If this does not awaken the sense of mysticism and wonder about nature, I don't know what will..<br />
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You see...some of the greatest works in the modern era - music, painting, architecture, science and invention, printing, war making, expansionism, learning, industry... emanated from the renaissance era!<br />
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Come to think of it - it was a reawakening of the Greek and Roman era in the modern times which gave suddenly, the somewhat backward nation-states of Europe - a new purpose and direction.<br />
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What started as an artistic pursuit in the 14th century lasted until the 17th century and left the world a very different place. Europeans, decisively took the lead from Chinese and Indians post renaissance. There was a new sense of direction and purpose where there seemed to be backwardness before.<br />
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Great prosperity is typically preceded by times of reawakening of art and culture. Some of the greatest gardens in Italy were created during this time. The way the gardens were made, give us some learning on how to build somethings which can last.<br />
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The great gardens' of Italy have lasted 300+ years and will likely last many more. The trees and flowers are long gone, but the style and texture still remain.<br />
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One of the things which has profoundly impacted me in recent past is that one thing which all the gardens seem to have in common....<br />
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Like Monty says - <i>In every direction, you see balance, order and harmony. There is something in them... that still has such a powerful resonance with us today. The thing that strikes you immediately when you walk in is the symmetry. </i><br />
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<i>Everything is balanced. Whatever happens on one side is picked up on the other side. The result is harmonious, and you can feel it, you can feel this sense of lightness, of generosity that is completely prepared and ordered and laid out. </i></div>
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<i>And you might think that that would be dull and predictable, but actually, it's not. The whole point of that is in every direction, you see balance, order and harmony. </i></div>
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<i>Renaissance thinkers were exploring classical scientific principles, and one of the beliefs was that God created the world along mathematical lines. </i><br />
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The renaissance gardens give us a great lesson to learn - that... that which is created to last, has to have a sense of balance, a sense of purpose. All, built with a sense of love and great harmony filled with delight.<br />
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Let us build our pieces of work and art... that unfinished painting, which we want to build to last... with great balance, order and harmony. </div>
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Amen. Long live Monty Don!<br />
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Ciao till next time...Harsha</div>
Harshahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07448174492659018046noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13272260.post-1662417977746936222019-06-05T08:41:00.000+02:002019-06-05T08:44:15.914+02:00Running your own race: Understand Inner scorecard vs. Outer scorecardLife is a single player game. It is not a multi player game. The things which really matter.. the ones which really really matter are internal, not external.<br />
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #14171a; letter-spacing: 0.27px; white-space: pre-wrap;">"<i>The reality is life is a single-player game. You’re born alone. You’re going to die alone. All of your interpretations are alone. All your memories are alone. You’re gone in three generations and nobody cares. Before you showed up, nobody cared. It’s all single-player.</i>" - </span><a class="twitter-atreply pretty-link js-nav" data-mentioned-user-id="745273" dir="ltr" href="https://twitter.com/naval" style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: #1da1f2; letter-spacing: 0.27px; text-decoration-line: none; white-space: pre-wrap;">@naval</a></span><br />
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Warren Buffett asks a question if people behave the way they do to please others or play by the gallery because they want or have to? Are people satisfied with an inner scorecard or an outer scorecard? He often asks a simple question: "<i>Would you rather be the world's greatest lover, but have everyone think you're the world's worst lover? Or would you rather be the word's worst lover but have everyone think you're the world's greatest lover?</i>"<br />
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When you compare yourselves to others - you allow them to drive your actions. When you are young - it could be that you compare yourself against that kid who topped the class, or ran the fastest or played cricket the best or something else like - if only I could have been a little taller - I could have become a better basketball player. Some of these are trivial comparisons which lead to better performance, but most give headaches which you could do without. Knowing the limits of comparison is usually not easy.<br />
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The other day, I was comparing my two kids - who is going to be better academically, who can be a better business person, who would do better at something - why can't one be a little better here and so on and so forth.<br />
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Typically when you compare, and you end up short - it is because you are comparing their best features versus your own ordinary or mediocre features. In a sense you end up playing the other person's game.<br />
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A few years back, before I hurt my leg in a freak accident; the one thing which I really enjoyed most was running. Running 10K's and half marathons was very enjoyable. You tend to think about various things and mentally relax when you run for a long time.<br />
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The thoughts in mind are not about being faster than the person running next to you or to finish the race ahead of someone else - when the race is long, essentially it becomes a race against yourself. Setting yourself against your old best self. Setting a yardstick which you yourself had set and seeing if you can better that.<br />
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When you start comparing like that, you essentially try to become a learning machine updating your previous system with a better version. Its like getting a new software on an already existing hardware.<br />
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<b><i>The question really is - what game would you want to play and what would you rather pass?</i></b><br />
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I was rambling around. But, that is really the question. It is really hard to think along those lines. Many a times, we die without thinking. I think most people would rather die than think :-)<br />
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<i>Can you really beat Gary Kasparov?</i><br />
Off-course you can. Just pick a game that's not chess. Maybe cricket which I'm sure he has no idea about.<br />
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<i>Would you slog at work trying to please your boss? How can you become better at work?</i><br />
Maybe yes, if you like your boss :-) Better still, pick things which you really know you can do well and maybe be world class in that small area.<br />
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It's important to cover fatal flaws (especially if you need domain knowledge to be successful), but really find those niches where you are best in class. Best in the world.<br />
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<i>Knowing where to play and what to play?</i><br />
The most important things in life are really measured internally. Does helping someone give you pleasure, does doing something scientifically or in engineering or being a medical doctor or fighting fires gives you pleasure? These questions are essentially very much determined by your nature, skill sets, temperament and the real "you".<br />
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Playing the wrong game is easy. That's essentially what most of us do. We may even win the game. But, how does that matter... winning the wrong game :-) It basically would be meaningless and pointless.<br />
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Thinking about what game you want to play is hard. Playing that is even harder. Pleasing the crowd at a common game is easier. Easy, crowded games are not very fulfilling. That's the way you can end up being mediocre. Most of us do end up there.<br />
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Know your game. Play your game. Help others play their games. Life's not a multi player game. Its a single player game played by multiple people who are playing their own games on the same playground.<br />
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Ciao till next time...HarshaHarshahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07448174492659018046noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13272260.post-66318698050779871552018-11-25T13:33:00.000+01:002018-11-25T13:33:09.357+01:00Endurance and Permanence: Test to Survive and ThriveI have been thinking of writing this for a while. It has really struck my mind how and why something can endure and thrive over such a long period of time.<br />
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Wait. Let me back up and tell you the story.<br />
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During our visit to Srilanka, we visited Anuradhapura - the ancient capital of Srilanka and visited the remarkable Maha Bodhi Tree - a sapling of the Great Bodhi Tree under which Gautam Buddha attained enlightenment (to start the 4th most followed religion today) - that has stood ground for 2,300 years.<br />
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It was the year 288BC when this tree got planted by the Indian King Ashoka's daughter Sangamitra. For the next two millennia - many things have come and gone, but the tree has stood ground.<br />
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Srilanka was ruled by Devanampiyatissa during that time - one of the first noted kings of Srilanka.<br />
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For the next few centuries his followers made Anuradhapura a great city rivalled by few other cities in the world - Babylon in Iraq, Alexandria in Egypt, Carthage in North Africa (still a mighty kingdom preceding Roman empire) and Pataliputra in India (still a go-to place for higher education in the ancient world).<br />
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The great libraries of Alexandria were just getting constructed during this time. The Mauryan empire still stretched from the modern day Iraq / Afghanistan to the woods of Burma.<br />
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The first villages in the valley of Rome were getting built once people in the valley got a hang of growing the ancient strain of wheat and barley on a dependable seasonal river water harvesting!<br />
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Just to imagine seeing a living contemporary of monumental historical events is akin to blurring the passage of time or just like pressing a historical pause button or even rewinding the clock to see that similar things existed in those times.<br />
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A lot of things have happened since that time and its remarkable the tree has stood ground.<br />
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Anuradhapura was the capital for many centuries post which it was abandoned due to many reasons - draught, lack of military might, weak rulers, etc.<br />
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In the meantime - the original Bodhi tree was either cut down or naturally died due to passage of time.<br />
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Anuradhapura itself was abandoned as a marauding Chola kingdom of South India was flexing its muscles in the 13 - 14 centuries. A group of Buddhist monks are known to have stayed back to keep the tree going as a holy site.<br />
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More recently - in 1929 a man determined to cut down the tree cut-off its biggest branch. Terrorist attacks in 1985 killed over 100 people - though hurt on both occasions - remarkably, the tree managed to survive and grow!<br />
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This brings me to the important question of just what has made the tree survive for so long. History teaches us a lot of things and there are useful tips here.<br />
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I want to map out the parallels to companies where as investors, managers and leaders - it makes very real sense to follow the nature's guidelines. Here are the top tips for endurance and permanence - the elixir of life so to speak.<br />
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<b>1) It is not always the strongest, largest or the fastest which survive the longest</b><br />
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It is a profound thought that has left me pondering. The tree certainly looks very old - but it has the extreme <i><u>resiliency</u></i> which is remarkable to bear.<br />
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It is no secret that the longest surviving companies in the world are the beer makers in Germany, wine makers in France or alcohol companies of Japan which have survived for many centuries. Neither did they branch out or dilute their core-competency.<br />
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The fighting spirit - the ability to keep relevant and be resilient and influence change instead of standing upto it and dying are key aspects.<br />
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By design - Amazon's and Facebook's of the world will get disrupted - fastest and strongest don't really bear the test of time. Social media or internet based purchasing may come and go - something else will be the newest toys in people's hands.<br />
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<b>2) The remarkable ability to bear pain </b><br />
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A lesser tree that's over 2,000 years old would have fallen down when its biggest branch is cut off. It is said - a lot of old people die due to complications when they go under the knife for a surgery. The actual ailment may be cured. Complications, side-affects do arise. They are lethal. Usually.<br />
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In the scheme of things - bad things happen over a long period of time. When the times are good - every Tom, Dick and Harry would do well.<br />
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As Warren Buffett says - "It is only when the tide goes out - do you see who is swimming naked".<br />
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The ability of companies, individuals alike to bear the pain of forces - draughts, competition, attacks, weak and crooked management, poor decisions, etc - is very important.<br />
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The <i><u>core-competency</u></i>, <i><u>ability to focus on what matters</u></i> and most importantly that which results in the <i><u>ability to take pain</u></i> are the key.<br />
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<b>3) The do-good, feel-good aspect. Being a net positive in the scheme of things</b><br />
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A lot of positives go your way when there is net positive being delivered for humanity. A lesser tree which has no value - spiritually and mentally would never have got taken care off by humanity at large!<br />
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Survival and indeed thriving in nature is only possible when the entire ecosystem benefits by the particular subject in question.<br />
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I was researching how some of the family businesses thrives over many centuries inspite of weak ROEs, low growth and cyclical profitability.<br />
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They invariably bring some <i><u>very real good to the entire ecosystem</u></i> in which they operate. How and where we bring value to the entire ecosystem - suppliers, partners, employees, customers, society and humanity at large are very real questions to have clarity on when looking at aspects for companies operating today.<br />
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Nature finds a way to keep the <i><u>net positives to ecosystem alive</u></i> - as long as the value add is noticeably greater than value destruction.<br />
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<b><i>In conclusion</i></b> -<br />
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It is very important to remember the words of Spinoza - <i><b>"You have to look at things in the aspect of eternity"</b>. </i><br />
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Long term vision is very <span style="text-align: center;">important to stay relevant - plan for next 2 Qtrs is usually present with most companies. Few if any look at what happens a year, 2 years and 5 years or more out.</span><br />
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As, the saying goes - "The stone age did not end due to lack of stones". Staying relevant, focusing on what matters - core-competency, ability to take pain and being a net positive for the ecosystem are important corporate tips.<br />
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Finding constant relevance - in the current and future scheme of things is very important.<br />
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Ciao till next time...HarshaHarshahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07448174492659018046noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13272260.post-70644182079236044662018-06-10T05:49:00.001+02:002018-06-10T05:49:23.585+02:00The curious case of grabbing everything: Givers vs. Takers<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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We recently made a move from US to India. As most moves go - there is a lot of packing, shipping or giving away involved.<br />
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I observed a curious behavior when it came to taking things. Obviously, you would want to sell things like - car, furniture, etc where possible. We were lucky selling off the cars and some furniture.<br />
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Most others - my wife and I decided to give away. Obviously, you would want to give things away to people who may need it. Like the student who reached out and wanted the golf set, neighborhood children who wanted the cycles, etc. Those are the perfect match.<br />
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For most others - you just post pictures / items on Craigslist for people to come pick what they like and leave. My wife had atleast dozen pictures of items to be given away on Criagslist - mattresses, household items, kitchen items, electronics, furniture, etc. It took a couple of weekends to clear away.<br />
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Few things which I observed:<br />
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<ul>
<li>Most people wanted to load up on things just because it came free! A few who came by took everything which was kept to be given away.</li>
<li>In the purest form, there are very few people who would say - let me just pick the crockery set and leave the carpet for someone else.</li>
<li>We had Asians, Indians, Whites and Blacks come by. </li>
<li>I did not see a difference in any one set of people when it came to aspect of taking things for free.</li>
<li>There were cases where I asked if they would like to pay and buy something which was not put in the give-away list (like the sofa for example). After the first two times, I stopped asking.</li>
<li>There are a some who are very warm and enquire why you are giving away! They stop by and wish you the very best.</li>
<li>I was surprised to see our kids give away their toys when we told them we did not have space to carry everything back. </li>
<li>Don't expect a thank you from people all the time. Some want to just carry as much as possible which leaves them very little time for anything else.</li>
<li>Then there are those who advise you not to move to a 3rd world country from a 1st world country. I had the guy who was picking up our mattress (for free) tell me why I am better off in the Bay Area all the while when helping him load the stuff.</li>
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The process helped me learn a lot about human behavior. Altruism is something which gives you a good feeling about yourself. If only that can be made more targeted, that will be awesome! Read more about my experience being a recipient of someone else's goodness - <a href="http://harshav.blogspot.com/2017/04/altruism-helping-others-with-no.html" target="_blank">Altruism: Helping others with no expectation in return</a>.<br />
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There is a good book on givers vs. takers which talks about this topic in terms of professional success. I couldn't summarize this better than here - <a href="https://www.fs.blog/2014/10/adam-grant-give-and-take/" target="_blank">To Give or Take? The Surprising Science Behind Success</a>.<br />
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Ciao till next time...HarshaHarshahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07448174492659018046noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13272260.post-16818621714386814152018-03-01T21:52:00.001+01:002022-07-26T08:46:55.189+02:00Don't just be a problem solver. Be a problem preventer.People always like complicated things. How can we solve something that is very difficult? What can we do to showcase intellectual brilliance? I just finished reading a few books on the pharmaceutical industry. A big portion of my money is invested in Indian companies in this sector and I want to understand more about the business models there. There is a long runway for Indian firms particularly to grow by taking costs down. The margin of a J&J or a Pfizer or a Novartis is an opportunity for a Sun Pharma or Ajanta Pharma or a Caplin Point.<br />
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Anyway.. I am digressing from what I had in my mind. Coming back to complicated things. Particularly how much money gets spent on finding cures for some of the illnesses (you pick the disease - Cancer, AIDS, etc..). Cancer research alone in the US is a fascinating field. National Cancer Institute alone has spent over $500B in 40 years on - <a href="http://bigthink.com/devil-in-the-data/the-never-ending-war-on-cancer" target="_blank">War on Cancer</a>. It continues to remain the second biggest cause of death (the first one is easy to guess - heart disease). The general attitude of the western world is - let us declare a war on something and relentlessly pound our way to get to the cure for that. The general tendency is to find solutions for the most difficult and exciting problems.<br />
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Let's take an alternate look at this problem. If you don't get cancer - you won't die from it. It is less intellectually stimulating to advise people to get a 30 min exercise daily, do a yoga routine or create a concerted effort to educate kids to not take up smoking (which is the no. 1 reason for Cancer).<br />
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Prevention, many a time is easy and not costly. We just don't find that intellectually stimulating. Period. Simplicity is not appreciated, as we want to spend time on complicated things.<br />
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There are similar parallel's in our corporate world. Problem prevention is a highly under-appreciated skill (read - things that will not get you noticed). Corporate examples:<br />
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1) Preventing a major accident/incident that could cause multiple $M's going waste.<br />
2) Damage control exercises that prevent permanent damage that no one wants to really own or handle (these are in particular strict no-no's).<br />
3) Prevent an exercise in futility. Refusing to do an exercise of some random analysis which will mostly indicate some random set of results which ego massage management or activity which you would not like to do as doing nothing may be better than doing something (my old blog: <a href="http://harshav.blogspot.in/2016/12/the-do-nothing-strategy.html" target="_blank">http://harshav.blogspot.in/2016/12/the-do-nothing-strategy.html</a>).. etc..<br />
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I just finished reading two interesting books. I highly recommend you to read that too.<br />
They talk about the good and bad of problem prevention.<br />
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The first book is about Shelby Davis - "The Davis Dynasty" - <a href="http://www.valuewalk.com/2015/08/the-davis-dynasty-fifty-years-of-successful-investing-on-wall-street-book-review/" target="_blank">http://www.valuewalk.com/2015/08/the-davis-dynasty-fifty-years-of-successful-investing-on-wall-street-book-review/</a>.<br />
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In this book, the key takeaway for me is the aspect of just preventing all errors of trading by just holding onto high-quality, undervalued insurance stocks Davis purchased for multiple decades. It's interesting to note that he held onto many of the good as well as dud stocks. He just avoided all trading errors by holding onto them over a long period of time!</div>
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What a simple problem prevention strategy. That is similar to Warren Buffett, but with a slight twist. Buffett's folksy American wisdom and well-thought-out public persona add to his fame, whereas Shelby Davis was known almost exclusively in insurance circles. He started investing relatively late in life. He would have been a billionaire many times over if he had started investing in his 20s.</div>
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The second book is about the Vanderbilt family "Fortune's Children" - how they lost a fortune of $200M (in the 1890s which in today's value would be ~$400B) within a hundred years - <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Fortunes-Children-Fall-House-Vanderbilt/dp/1494554011" target="_blank">https://www.amazon.com/Fortunes-Children-Fall-House-Vanderbilt/dp/1494554011</a>.<br />
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The entire book is a series of comedies of errors. From holding a fortune that was more than what was held in the entire US Treasury during the 1890s to losing it all within the next 80 years is a mammoth task. <div><br /></div><div>A quick summary can be read here: <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/natalierobehmed/2014/07/14/the-vanderbilts-how-american-royalty-lost-their-crown-jewels/#2a4133d8353b" target="_blank">https://www.forbes.com/sites/natalierobehmed/2014/07/14/the-vanderbilts-how-american-royalty-lost-their-crown-jewels/#2a4133d8353b</a>.<br />
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<b><i>What am I getting at?</i></b><br />
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Human beings are wired to respond to a story. That’s pretty much how we live our lives, narrating our own story as we go along. In a sense, prevention is the anti-story. When it comes to health, wealth, or professional achievements - prevention, in the best way possible, robs us of a painful story that might have had a profound impact on us.<br />
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If life is built around story-telling, it’s difficult to appreciate the full value of the mechanisms we use to prevent harm, because the corresponding stories never materialize.<br />
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It’s much sexier to be a problem solver. You see that description all over people’s LinkedIn profiles and CVs - especially now that I am trying to interview a whole bunch of people. Problem-solving implies a deft intellect and resourcefulness. Problems attract a lot of attention. Solutions bring a lot of acclaims.<br />
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Being a problem preventer is much more boring. People see the expected, repeated, competent output from a problem preventer and think little of it. Bill Gates. Steve Jobs. Jack Welch. These are problem solvers. We know their names because of it.<br />
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It would be great if everyone in leadership was a mature, patient, disciplined thinker who innately understood the value of problem prevention. That’s not always the case, though.<br />
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It is therefore important for us as smart managers or leaders to understand and appreciate this skill set. In an increasing world of loud self-promotion and advertisement - sane voices can get trampled amid the noise. Differentiating information from noise is so very important.<br />
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Ciao till next time...Harsha</div>Harshahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07448174492659018046noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13272260.post-22454925372819206842017-07-14T19:03:00.000+02:002017-07-14T19:03:14.350+02:00Bye bye Cypress. Funny recollections<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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Someone told me that finally what you remember when a good run ends are memories of the good times. After 10 years, I say goodbye to Cypress.<br />
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The other day my son and I - we were playing a game to build up his memory on country names. I ended up counting how many countries I visited during my time @ Cypress - it was 30+ countries (I forget if it was 36 or 39) in 4 continents. For giving me the opportunity to travel world-wide and work in 3 continents - I will be forever thankful to Cypress. One's thinking expands when you travel and work with different cultures and visit different places - this is something you cannot get otherwise. I'll list the top 5 entertaining moments I had in these 10 years when traveling. Damn it.. I see there were some entertaining moments.<br />
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1) Follow-me taxi: When I joined Cypress in India, I got sent to San Jose for a knowledge transfer training. It ended up as a close to 3 months stay. After a few weeks I ventured to rent a car (with another colleague who was also visiting CY USA). We somehow lost our way and it was fun trying to knock someone's door to find directions. Finally we hired a taxi and followed him!<br />
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2) Shopping in Israel: It's never fun when you have working Sundays. Israel is one of the places that does. In my first customer trip abroad I landed in Israel on Saturday night (Sabbath) only to lose my luggage. Saturday evenings are sort of closed out (that's interesting..no shopping during Sabbath!). I waited at a shopping complex for shops to open. Now comes the difficult part. Explaining what I really wanted to buy in an old traditional shop (not one of the jazzy malls)...is not fun. Especially try translating inner wear.<br />
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3) Detained in Switzerland: Borderless travel in Europe is no fun when you forget to carry your passport. Especially in Switzerland. I always felt traveling to customer visits in Southern Germany or Switzerland to be most fun. Trains are fast, efficient and always nice. I was on one of my usual visits in Zug / Zurich (I forget where now) and got selected for the random check (damn...now how random can it be that the brown-skinned guy always get random checked :-))... Carrying no passport. No visa. Detained in a police station for few hours. Psst. Never ever ever leave without your passport. That was the closest I came to being sent back to my home country.<br />
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4) Chef's special soup @ Ritz Carlton Seoul: Being a veggie is no fun in far east. Especially in Korea. One of the early fun days was always the long travels that our friendly JB Raa was fond of sending me to :-) Korea being his home country, I got packed there for 4 or 5 weeks to visit customers staying locally. The bland food in my hotel finally caught upto me after the first few weeks...I bought some rasam powder (the spicy curry) from local Indian store and asked the chef @ Ritz Carlton to prepare a soup daily. It seems the chef tasted this and took a liking for the Indian soup! He promised to include this in the menu as the Chef's special soup. I need to find someday if Ritz Carlton, Seoul really has this still on menu! <br />
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5) The night-time coffee in Finland: Traveling to Nordic (Sweden, Finland or Norway) was always fun. The customers are so friendly, people are so fun to be with, the places are so vast (no doubt I really liked traveling recently to Alaska for vacation.. it's so similar)! Vaasa is an interesting place in Finland. Being close to the Arctic circle - you can always count on sun at 1am or 2am during summer-time. The coffee you drink when there is a colorful hue (is that what they call Aurora Borealis...never mind, I didn't know that then) is awesome! Who needs sleep then. Just that you need to stay awake the next day...<br />
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6) Snowed over Sweden: The Nordic telecom customers were onetime big users of our RAMs.. it was a monthly trip visiting Stockholm or Gothenburg. Anders and I, after a price negotiation were just heading to the airport in the most horrible snow storm I have seen...3 feet snow; Anders being the honest guy you can find, trying to still make it to the airport (though we both knew flights would be cancelled). Struck in airport, no flights, no hotel to stay, no taxis going out now seems like a pleasant experience (atleast the old pics seem to show a happy me!).. Tip: book a hotel room asap when it snows heavily in Nordics. Airports are no fun.<br />
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7) Losing cell-phone can be dangerous (happy wife, happy life!): Specialty Memory days were so much fun traveling into Israel for customer visits. When traveling to airport like 3 hrs before your flight (so that you clear all the security checks at Ben Gurion Airport), I called my wife to say I'm heading home. There was a cop checking our taxi (this is normal when you are entering into the airport), I told my wife that I need to hang up to speak to the cop. I left my phone in the taxi heading into the airport. She seems to have called me back only for a strange guy to pick-up the call and speak in Hebrew. She ends up calling Sumit (I hope he remembers this call), Richard (sales guy in Israel).. and the airport. Luckily I remembered to call her after passing through the security check.<br />
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8) Never mix red-bull with vodka and Irish car bomb: Kamal is not a fun boss when it comes to drinking binges. Amol and I had an interesting drinking experience when we were based in Munich. Spending a night drinking with Kamal and Ludwig.. is never a good idea. Especially when you down 5 shots of red-bull with vodka and then end up drinking Irish car bomb. I ended up taking the wrong local train in Munich.., I really don't remember much. Waking up in Stanberg the next morning, I took the 2hr train back home. That was one angry wife waiting back. My colleague Amol had pink rashes all over his face the next Monday in office. Never seen someone like that.<br />
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Well there it goes (did I say i'll write top-5?).... I have no time now to edit and correct this to top-8... its my post anyway. Who gives the tower of pisa a second glance if it were standing straight! I'll leave this as is.<br />
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Ciao till next time...HarshaHarshahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07448174492659018046noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13272260.post-39046401359635834512017-07-03T22:31:00.000+02:002017-07-03T22:31:23.033+02:00Clarity: Understanding what you do not want<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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I am a big fan of Charlie Munger. His thoughts on building a frame-work of mental models is top notch. One of the thoughts he brings is "inversion" - ability to think backwards instead of forwards. Example: if you want to be happy, one can do that by cutting down on things which make you unhappy. Do not be around people you dislike, do not do things which give you dis-contentment, mental pain for no gain, non-stimulation, etc etc.. cut down on crap. <br />
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In many of our work and things that affect our lives, we are more mechanical in approach and fail to question why we do what we do. Ability to focus on work is critical to success. Most successful people have found that focused work is very critical to success. You can read on what I wrote here: <a href="http://harshav.blogspot.com/2017/06/focus-key-tool-for-success.html" target="_blank">Focus: a key tool for success</a>.<br />
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One of my colleagues who read what I wrote on focus asked me this pertinent question: "<b><i>Harsha how can you focus on something when you really do not know what to focus on! I think I can do so much better, but I have so many things to do and all needs to get done as I've agreed to do everything"</i></b><br />
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This is such an important question in our lives. We have so much potential and still end up doing mediocre work. The potential to do wonderful things exist in all of us, but we end up with sub-par results since we are unable to focus on "what we want".<br />
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From time immemorial we humans have had the same problem. We have our lives to live, the rigmarole to make ends meet and somehow in this midst of it all, fail to focus on things we want to do. There is an inherent "lack of clarity" - the inability to understand clearly what we want, what matters and the resulting issue of mediocre performance overall. There seem to be very few people who have understood the power of "clarity".<br />
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Guru Munger says: "Invert the problem. Always invert". So, looking at our issue of "no clarity" - it is very important for us to remove all those things which are clouding the judgement and not really important or are not giving us enough energy to drive on. Let's list all the items which one needs to remove in order to be left with "clarity":<br />
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1) Distraction. I think this is our no. 1 enemy of our life and times. We have so many distractions and so many pulls which are meaningless yet time consuming. Prevent yourself from becoming distracted. Read my "<a href="http://harshav.blogspot.com/2016/12/the-do-nothing-strategy.html" target="_blank">The do-nothing strategy</a>".<br />
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We feel that if you keep running around in circles - you are creating something of economic value. Example - generating reports on why something is where-it-is or looking too much into history and forecasting what something needs to be or looking into set of random data and creating patterns where none exist and creating complex models around them, etc etc are running around tree patterns. Let's stop getting distracted.<br />
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2) Unorganized behavior or lack of prioritization. This is something I have observed increasingly after I started looking at things more critically. This tendency can affect any of us well meaning individuals. The main root cause for this to arise is due to our perceived inability to say "no" to things. Read my "<a href="http://harshav.blogspot.com/2016/08/urgent-vs-important-i-just-got-email.html" target="_blank">Urgent vs Important</a>".<br />
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We want to do everything. We like to be in every meeting. Read every email we are on cc, attend every single conference call which adds minimal value to us and do everything that ideally our boss has to do because you cannot say "no" to him / her. As a civilization, we have lost our capability to "say no". I think our society has built an army of yes men - which has resulted in loss of critical thinking. Sorry for the meandering thoughts.. but again prioritize. Say no more often. People understand - they actually take you more seriously once they understand that your "yes" means world-class work and your "no" means no.<br />
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3) Lack of physical energy. Some of you may be surprised at this third bullet. But, as I get older I have observed that ability to perform at sustained high quality levels need high levels of mental and physical fitness.<br />
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This was a constant problem for me with constant head-aches, migraines, back-aches, etc. The root-cause of all these was simply lack of physical fitness. An hour in the gym thrice a week or couple of hours playing tennis a week or an hour of yoga a day will normally be sufficient if you are not after that Greek-God body. But, this takes effort and the ability to mark-down a time to do it.<br />
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Well, there would be many more I suppose that needs to be removed. For starters - here were my top 3! I hope you will be left with more clarity and result in increased focus on things that you ought to focus on after reading this!<br />
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I hope I was able to bring a little more clarity in your thoughts. Do, let me know what things bring you clarity.<br />
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Ciao till next time...HarshaHarshahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07448174492659018046noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13272260.post-68258000613436546702017-06-12T06:02:00.001+02:002017-06-12T06:08:06.558+02:00Focus: a key tool for success<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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Our world is a very distracted place. We live in a summary world. The first thing our children or our executives or our spouses want from us is a summary of that book / that important proposal / that movie. Nobody seems to have the time to dedicate to focused effort. That has become our world today.<br />
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I watched my 2-year old son flip through youtube cartoon videos as if he's trying to get a peek into the cartoon before moving on. I tried to reason with him a few days back. I failed. I think he feels that what comes next maybe better than the current one (its a guess - nobody will come to know until he can articulate!). But - I think we all have the same problem. Its something which we brush under the garb of keeping ourselves busy.<br />
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Let me articulate my thoughts here.<br />
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If you've watched the latest documentary on Warren Buffett (on HBO) - you will notice the friendship he shares with another of the world's wealthiest men - Bill Gates. There’s a scene where Buffett and Gates had met early on and were sitting at a table, when they were both asked to write down on a piece of paper the one thing that they each felt attributed most to their success.<br />
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Surely enough, Buffett and Gates had written the same word down on their respective papers: <b><i>focus</i></b>.<br />
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Tom Watson Sr., the man who built IBM was asked what his secret for success was - his reply was a classic - "I’m no genius. I’m smart in spots—but I stay around those spots". Again an attribution to being focused.<br />
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Many of the highly regarded men attribute their success to a singular focus - commitment to a main goal or purpose in their lives which result in out-sized success. Be it playing a sport or running a business or creating art or whatever else that someone is endowed with enough talent - its usually the maximization of those talents that result in out-sized success.<br />
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What can we do to stay focused?<br />
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<b><i>1) Limit your time spent on weapons of mass-distraction i.e., TV, Internet, Facebook, Whatsapp, Instagram, Email, etc.</i></b><br />
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Get real. Read a book. Take a walk, come out of the virtual world. Refrain from responding to that email with 50 people on cc. Who really cares anyway. If its that important - they'll call you. Probably you should make a call - if you think you're feedback is so important in the first place.<br />
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Wake up early. The one hour in the morning is a wonderful time to read 20-pages of that book. In two weeks, you will read a book. In a year - you will read 26 books.<br />
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<b><i>2) Set a goal - maybe learn a new sport. Your goal should not be a laundry list of 10 or 20. Just one or two works fine.</i></b><br />
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Learn a sport. I have seen that many a sport can be learnt at reasonable prices - if only we put in the effort to go to your sports center to inquire. Its wonderful to meet new people - we are far too bucketed in the midst of people in similar jobs / roles / age. Learning a new sport gets you to meet with interesting people in different walks of life.<br />
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I took this to heart. I recently started learning golf. I met this wonderful Gujarati old man who came to the US 30 years back. He was learning the sport too, we were joking about our inability to play golf not thinking you are hitting a cricket ball. He happened to own the two Marriott's I was passing by on way to work at San Jose. He seemed to have some interesting life advise that I could not get otherwise. The 3-hours on Saturdays was well spent.<br />
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<b><i>3) Is your time getting divided too much? Maybe eliminating or reducing certain distractions help.</i></b><br />
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We all have a limited amount of time and talent and we have to allocate it in a way so it will work better for us. Learning to say "no" sometimes can be liberating in life. We have become too much of "yes" men to keep us in our limits of mediocrity. At the end - the idea should be to let people do what they're best at and you do what you're best at. The rest is all crap. Really.<br />
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At the core of trying to get some focus in our lives - its important to realize that a majority of life's errors are caused by forgetting what one is really trying to do. Let's get back to basics.<br />
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Ciao till next time...HarshaHarshahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07448174492659018046noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13272260.post-2375158653144050422017-04-24T05:15:00.001+02:002022-07-26T08:49:55.259+02:00Altruism: Helping others with no expectation in return<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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A recent incident made me think deeply about this. I was on the receiving side of a wonderful gesture by my landlord recently when we were moving out. We had to move into a new place which would be an easier commute for my wife with better schools for kids. <div><br /></div><div>My landlord graciously offered to give half the month's rent (since we left mid-way during the month) - above and beyond what the contract stated. The gesture left me thankful and recipient of a wonderful gesture that left me thinking.<br />
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In this competitive world - when do we pause to reflect and give something to someone with absolutely no expectation whatsoever in return? We are constantly thinking about "ourselves". The selfish gene knowingly or unknowingly gains upper hand in our actions.<br />
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This one small gesture made me realize that there's more to human nature than just cause and effect. Maybe there are things that can truly bring us happiness by just giving.<br />
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This is just a note to me as much as for you. Help forward. Our blessings are too many to count. The world needs more good men.<br />
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Ciao till next time...Harsha</div>Harshahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07448174492659018046noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13272260.post-11833645714389663052017-02-26T07:58:00.000+01:002017-02-26T08:10:22.488+01:00The Importance of Second Level ThinkingThe biggest task for us when we moved to our new house was to get everything in order. Now, my main task was to get my books in order - have a library created (and create a rudimentary catalog for books I have). In my garb of buying books that seem interesting, I have now the unenviable task of reading 30+ books that are unread for the year..(I am making a mental note not to buy more until I clear most of unfinished ones.. I know I am going to fail this one).<br />
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Anyway - I just started re-reading the wonderful book by Howard Marks - "<a href="https://www.amazon.com/Most-Important-Thing-Illuminated-Thoughtful/dp/0231162847/ref=pd_sbs_14_t_0?_encoding=UTF8&psc=1&refRID=PKKY6PQZ96CC8S72HCZY" target="_blank">The Most Important Thing</a>". The beauty of reading old ones you know, like and concur is like watching that old favorite movie of yours... you know whats going to come; but sometimes, just sometimes something new pops-up. You realize that you never thought about that before..<br />
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<u>Second Level Thinking:</u><br />
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Let me give you some thoughts regarding this. First level thinking is when you take a first dab at anything.. Simplistic, almost superficial and usually not going to turn out the way you thought in complex situations.<br />
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Example: Oil prices are too high (flashback 2007), so they will continue to go up.. (we have reached a stage of peak-oil) or oil prices have fallen down (now in 2016 or 2017) and they will continue to go down or stay there... not really knowing the dynamics behind why the prices reached there in the first place (shale oil, horizontal drilling / fracking; geo-politics of trying to bleed Russia with low oil prices).<br />
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Now, any layman can have a "opinion" about any event that will or can happen. This is classic first level thinking.<br />
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However - second level thinking is more deliberate and something which takes more in-depth study of subject. For the example above on oil prices or commodity price behavior - one can learn a lot by reading about Shale revolution (read - The Green and The Black), geo-politics in middle east (I recommend books on - 6 Days War, Saddam Hussein - Debriefing the President, OPEC: the failing giant, among others) and biography of John D Rockefeller (the original robber baron :-)). Once someone has a understanding of the background, and understand the dynamics of what's happening - you can take a balanced view on topics where complex variables are involved.<br />
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<u>Predicting Complex Events and a Look at Alternate History:</u><br />
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Most such situations are too hard to predict anyway even after understanding the dynamics at a high level (there is always a range of outcomes that are possible for any situation with probabilities for each outcome). Sometimes if the variables are limited - one can take a calculated guess at the outcome, in few others its too difficult to predict one single outcome.<br />
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So, this train of thoughts led me to have a look at what I would call as "alternate history". What could have happened if the roll of dice or favorable set of conditions existed for something that has happened in history. As an example: for the World War II aficionados, its generally agreed that Hitler's defeat was sealed when he attacked Russia in the June of 1941 (Operation Barbarossa). What is not usually known is that he had the right ingredients to succeed - and how close he came to succeed.<br />
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When the Wehrmacht invaded the Soviet Union, they were received as liberators by the common people. The Ukrainians considered Hitler as the savior of Europe. The Bielorussians were eager to fight on the German side. Many regiments of Cossacs deserted to their enemy while Georgians, Armenians, Turkomans, Tartars and Uzbeks surrendered en masse. As Erich Kern an NCO in the Leibstandarte Adolf Hitler wrote in 1948 ("Dance of Death"), "<i>All over the city there were people waiting on the streets ready to cheers and welcome us..... Never before had I seen such sudden transformation…. Of Bolshevism there was no more</i>." <br />
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At that point, Hitler only needed to cooperate with the Ukrainians and others and make the necessary political alliances to conquer the Soviet Union.<br />
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But Hitler had become intoxicated with power and by then disregarded this and forged ahead expecting that the Soviet Union would collapse as France and other countries had. Then, after the Wehrmacht overran the western Soviet Union, Himmler and his assassins started roaming the territories under control, murdering people - Jews and others left and right. This made the various nations within the Soviet Union realize that the Germans were not so interested in destroying Bolshevism, but to enslave them. They then changed their hatred for Stalin and channeled it into a holy war, and saw their sole duty to defend the Soviet Union in what was viewed and characterized as a "Patriotic War".<br />
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So - there goes our alternate history. So near if you look at it from this angle. Anyway - a learning for you and me is that things are not so straight-forward as they seem to be when you look at the rear-view mirror.<br />
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<b><i>Things are always easier to justify when its in the past.</i></b><br />
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<u>What Will Work? How to Look at Things?</u><br />
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Superior thinking is never easy. Nothing is black or white. Everything in life is in shades of gray. Some darker than others. Most things in real world depend on either - "superior skills that can be quantified" or "superior insights"<br />
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In the end superior decisions and well thought out approaches can add more positives over the long run. But - even that can be hardly perfect. The best you can hope for is that you will be more often right than wrong and successful decisions add more than mistakes subtract.<br />
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At the end - its important to develop a sense of "being humble" and "ability to learn from our mistakes and those of others" as you will realize that you "don't completely own your successes" and a lot sometimes is dependent on a range of factors.<br />
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Ciao till next time...HarshaHarshahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07448174492659018046noreply@blogger.com0