Sunday, November 25, 2018

Endurance and Permanence: Test to Survive and Thrive

I have been thinking of writing this for a while. It has really struck my mind how and why something can endure and thrive over such a long period of time.

Wait. Let me back up and tell you the story.

During our visit to Srilanka, we visited Anuradhapura - the ancient capital of Srilanka and visited the remarkable Maha Bodhi Tree - a sapling of the Great Bodhi Tree under which Gautam Buddha attained enlightenment (to start the 4th most followed religion today) - that has stood ground for 2,300 years.



It was the year 288BC when this tree got planted by the Indian King Ashoka's daughter Sangamitra. For the next two millennia - many things have come and gone, but the tree has stood ground.

Srilanka was ruled by Devanampiyatissa during that time - one of the first noted kings of Srilanka.

For the next few centuries his followers made Anuradhapura a great city rivalled by few other cities in the world - Babylon in Iraq, Alexandria in Egypt, Carthage in North Africa (still a mighty kingdom preceding Roman empire) and Pataliputra in India (still a go-to place for higher education in the ancient world).
  
The great libraries of Alexandria were just getting constructed during this time. The Mauryan empire still stretched from the modern day Iraq / Afghanistan to the woods of Burma.

The first villages in the valley of Rome were getting built once people in the valley got a hang of growing the ancient strain of wheat and barley on a dependable seasonal river water harvesting!

Just to imagine seeing a living contemporary of monumental historical events is akin to blurring the passage of time or just like pressing a historical pause button or even rewinding the clock to see that similar things existed in those times.

A lot of things have happened since that time and its remarkable the tree has stood ground.

Anuradhapura was the capital for many centuries post which it was abandoned due to many reasons - draught, lack of military might, weak rulers, etc.

In the meantime - the original Bodhi tree was either cut down or naturally died due to passage of time.

Anuradhapura itself was abandoned as a marauding Chola kingdom of South India was flexing its muscles in the 13 - 14 centuries. A group of Buddhist monks are known to have stayed back to keep the tree going as a holy site.

More recently - in 1929 a man determined to cut down the tree cut-off its biggest branch. Terrorist attacks in 1985 killed over 100 people - though hurt on both occasions - remarkably, the tree managed to survive and grow!

This brings me to the important question of just what has made the tree survive for so long. History teaches us a lot of things and there are useful tips here.

I want to map out the parallels to companies where as investors, managers and leaders - it makes very real sense to follow the nature's guidelines. Here are the top tips for endurance and permanence - the elixir of life so to speak.

1) It is not always the strongest, largest or the fastest which survive the longest

It is a profound thought that has left me pondering. The tree certainly looks very old - but it has the extreme resiliency which is remarkable to bear.

It is no secret that the longest surviving companies in the world are the beer makers in Germany, wine makers in France or alcohol companies of Japan which have survived for many centuries. Neither did they branch out or dilute their core-competency.

The fighting spirit - the ability to keep relevant and be resilient and influence change instead of standing upto it and dying are key aspects.

By design - Amazon's and Facebook's of the world will get disrupted - fastest and strongest don't really bear the test of time. Social media or internet based purchasing may come and go - something else will be the newest toys in people's hands.

2) The remarkable ability to bear pain 

A lesser tree that's over 2,000 years old would have fallen down when its biggest branch is cut off. It is said - a lot of old people die due to complications when they go under the knife for a surgery. The actual ailment may be cured. Complications, side-affects do arise. They are lethal. Usually.

In the scheme of things - bad things happen over a long period of time. When the times are good - every Tom, Dick and Harry would do well.

As Warren Buffett says - "It is only when the tide goes out - do you see who is swimming naked".

The ability of companies, individuals alike to bear the pain of forces - draughts, competition, attacks, weak and crooked management, poor decisions, etc - is very important.

The core-competency, ability to focus on what matters and most importantly that which results in the ability to take pain are the key.

3) The do-good, feel-good aspect. Being a net positive in the scheme of things

A lot of positives go your way when there is net positive being delivered for humanity. A lesser tree which has no value - spiritually and mentally would never have got taken care off by humanity at large!

Survival and indeed thriving in nature is only possible when the entire ecosystem benefits by the particular subject in question.

I was researching how some of the family businesses thrives over many centuries inspite of weak ROEs, low growth and cyclical profitability.

They invariably bring some very real good to the entire ecosystem in which they operate. How and where we bring value to the entire ecosystem - suppliers, partners, employees, customers, society and humanity at large are very real questions to have clarity on when looking at aspects for companies operating today.

Nature finds a way to keep the net positives to ecosystem alive - as long as the value add is noticeably greater than value destruction.

In conclusion -

It is very important to remember the words of Spinoza - "You have to look at things in the aspect of eternity"

Long term vision is very important to stay relevant - plan for next 2 Qtrs is usually present with most companies. Few if any look at what happens a year, 2 years and 5 years or more out.

As, the saying goes - "The stone age did not end due to lack of stones".  Staying relevant, focusing on what matters - core-competency, ability to take pain and being a net positive for the ecosystem are important corporate tips.

Finding constant relevance - in the current and future scheme of things is very important.

Ciao till next time...Harsha

Sunday, June 10, 2018

The curious case of grabbing everything: Givers vs. Takers




We recently made a move from US to India. As most moves go - there is a lot of packing, shipping or giving away involved.

I observed a curious behavior when it came to taking things. Obviously, you would want to sell things like - car, furniture, etc where possible. We were lucky selling off the cars and some furniture.

Most others - my wife and I decided to give away. Obviously, you would want to give things away to people who may need it. Like the student who reached out and wanted the golf set, neighborhood children who wanted the cycles, etc. Those are the perfect match.

For most others - you just post pictures / items on Craigslist for people to come pick what they like and leave. My wife had atleast dozen pictures of items to be given away on Criagslist - mattresses, household items, kitchen items, electronics, furniture, etc. It took a couple of weekends to clear away.

Few things which I observed:

  • Most people wanted to load up on things just because it came free! A few who came by took everything which was kept to be given away.
  • In the purest form, there are very few people who would say - let me just pick the crockery set and leave the carpet for someone else.
  • We had Asians, Indians, Whites and Blacks come by. 
  • I did not see a difference in any one set of people when it came to aspect of taking things for free.
  • There were cases where I asked if they would like to pay and buy something which was not put in the give-away list (like the sofa for example). After the first two times, I stopped asking.
  • There are a some who are very warm and enquire why you are giving away! They stop by and wish you the very best.
  • I was surprised to see our kids give away their toys when we told them we did not have space to carry everything back. 
  • Don't expect a thank you from people all the time. Some want to just carry as much as possible which leaves them very little time for anything else.
  • Then there are those who advise you not to move to a 3rd world country from a 1st world country. I had the guy who was picking up our mattress (for free) tell me why I am better off in the Bay Area all the while when helping him load the stuff.

The process helped me learn a lot about human behavior. Altruism is something which gives you a good feeling about yourself. If only that can be made more targeted, that will be awesome! Read more about my experience being a recipient of someone else's goodness - Altruism: Helping others with no expectation in return.

There is a good book on givers vs. takers which talks about this topic in terms of professional success. I couldn't summarize this better than here - To Give or Take? The Surprising Science Behind Success.

Ciao till next time...Harsha

Thursday, March 01, 2018

Don't just be a problem solver. Be a problem preventer.

People always like complicated things. How can we solve something that is very difficult? What can we do to showcase intellectual brilliance? I just finished reading a few books on the pharmaceutical industry. A big portion of my money is invested in Indian companies in this sector and I want to understand more about the business models there. There is a long runway for Indian firms particularly to grow by taking costs down. The margin of a J&J or a Pfizer or a Novartis is an opportunity for a Sun Pharma or Ajanta Pharma or a Caplin Point.

Anyway.. I am digressing from what I had in my mind. Coming back to complicated things. Particularly how much money gets spent on finding cures for some of the illnesses (you pick the disease - Cancer, AIDS, etc..). Cancer research alone in the US is a fascinating field. National Cancer Institute alone has spent over $500B in 40 years on - War on Cancer. It continues to remain the second biggest cause of death (the first one is easy to guess - heart disease). The general attitude of the western world is - let us declare a war on something and relentlessly pound our way to get to the cure for that. The general tendency is to find solutions for the most difficult and exciting problems.

Let's take an alternate look at this problem. If you don't get cancer - you won't die from it. It is less intellectually stimulating to advise people to get a 30 min exercise daily, do a yoga routine or create a concerted effort to educate kids to not take up smoking (which is the no. 1 reason for Cancer).

Prevention, many a time is easy and not costly. We just don't find that intellectually stimulating. Period. Simplicity is not appreciated, as we want to spend time on complicated things.

There are similar parallel's in our corporate world. Problem prevention is a highly under-appreciated skill (read - things that will not get you noticed). Corporate examples:

1) Preventing a major accident/incident that could cause multiple $M's going waste.
2) Damage control exercises that prevent permanent damage that no one wants to really own or handle (these are in particular strict no-no's).
3) Prevent an exercise in futility. Refusing to do an exercise of some random analysis which will mostly indicate some random set of results which ego massage management or activity which you would not like to do as doing nothing may be better than doing something (my old blog: http://harshav.blogspot.in/2016/12/the-do-nothing-strategy.html).. etc..

I just finished reading two interesting books. I highly recommend you to read that too.
They talk about the good and bad of problem prevention.

The first book is about Shelby Davis - "The Davis Dynasty" - http://www.valuewalk.com/2015/08/the-davis-dynasty-fifty-years-of-successful-investing-on-wall-street-book-review/.


In this book, the key takeaway for me is the aspect of just preventing all errors of trading by just holding onto high-quality, undervalued insurance stocks Davis purchased for multiple decades. It's interesting to note that he held onto many of the good as well as dud stocks. He just avoided all trading errors by holding onto them over a long period of time!

What a simple problem prevention strategy. That is similar to Warren Buffett, but with a slight twist. Buffett's folksy American wisdom and well-thought-out public persona add to his fame, whereas Shelby Davis was known almost exclusively in insurance circles. He started investing relatively late in life. He would have been a billionaire many times over if he had started investing in his 20s.

The second book is about the Vanderbilt family "Fortune's Children" - how they lost a fortune of $200M (in the 1890s which in today's value would be ~$400B) within a hundred years - https://www.amazon.com/Fortunes-Children-Fall-House-Vanderbilt/dp/1494554011.



The entire book is a series of comedies of errors. From holding a fortune that was more than what was held in the entire US Treasury during the 1890s to losing it all within the next 80 years is a mammoth task. 

A quick summary can be read here: https://www.forbes.com/sites/natalierobehmed/2014/07/14/the-vanderbilts-how-american-royalty-lost-their-crown-jewels/#2a4133d8353b.

What am I getting at?

Human beings are wired to respond to a story. That’s pretty much how we live our lives, narrating our own story as we go along. In a sense, prevention is the anti-story. When it comes to health, wealth, or professional achievements - prevention, in the best way possible, robs us of a painful story that might have had a profound impact on us.

If life is built around story-telling, it’s difficult to appreciate the full value of the mechanisms we use to prevent harm, because the corresponding stories never materialize.

It’s much sexier to be a problem solver. You see that description all over people’s LinkedIn profiles and CVs - especially now that I am trying to interview a whole bunch of people. Problem-solving implies a deft intellect and resourcefulness. Problems attract a lot of attention. Solutions bring a lot of acclaims.

Being a problem preventer is much more boring. People see the expected, repeated, competent output from a problem preventer and think little of it. Bill Gates. Steve Jobs. Jack Welch. These are problem solvers. We know their names because of it.

It would be great if everyone in leadership was a mature, patient, disciplined thinker who innately understood the value of problem prevention. That’s not always the case, though.

It is therefore important for us as smart managers or leaders to understand and appreciate this skill set. In an increasing world of loud self-promotion and advertisement - sane voices can get trampled amid the noise. Differentiating information from noise is so very important.

Ciao till next time...Harsha